WDW Weather Forecast - November 30-Dec 16, 2008

[Strmchsr]

Each day in November, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Sunday pm, November 30, 2008
Well, the front sped up by 3-4 hours and at 1:00 pm EST a large squall line is headed towards WDW and will be followed by a fairly large rain mass that will last through the rest of the day. A tornado watch is in effect until 5:00 pm EST. Today's high will hit 75. Tomorrow will be cooler with a high 65-67 and a low around 55. Tuesday will be 60-62 for the high with a low 44-46. Now, there's a very slight chance an isolated shower could pop up tomorrow and Tuesday, but I honestly think both days should be rain free. I think Wednesday and Thursday will also be rain free with highs 66-68 on Wednesday (low of 42-44) and 70-72 on Thursday (low 48-50). The next front approaches on Friday. Right now it looks like scattered showers will be possible, but the main energy will move up the east coast so I don't think it'll be a huge rain event. Just hit and miss stuff with a high of 75-77. After the front passes Saturday will cool back to 68-70 for the high and 47-49 for the low. Sunday will be clear with a high 70-72 and a low 50-52.

Long range...The latest long range GFS projections are hinting at a change in the overall pattern with the gradual development of a closed low over the Western US. This would bring Florida into a wet and mild pattern with a strong southwesterly flow aloft. The problem is the models are flip-flopping almost every run. So, for today my best guess on the long range is Dec 8-9 look clear with highs in the 74-76 range and lows in the mid 50s. Dec 10 warms to near 80 with the approach of a cold front. Isolated showers are possible. Dec 11-12 will have highs in the mid 70s. The next big front moves through on Dec 13 with thunderstorms and a high in the low 70s. Dec 14-16 looks clear with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. Again, this is changing every run, so take it with a grain of salt for the time being.

Travel Impact
At noon CST, Atlanta, JFK, La Guardia and Chicago are all at 90 min delays while Newark and Philly are at 2 hours. Tomorrow expect delays in the Northeast.

[Dyanna]

We will be leaving this coming Fri night. Can you tell how humid it will be next week if at all. I am still undecited as to pack short sleeves or light weight long sleeves. Of course I already have my light jacket for the evenings.

[Strmchsr]

We will be leaving this coming Fri night. Can you tell how humid it will be next week if at all. I am still undecited as to pack short sleeves or light weight long sleeves. Of course I already have my light jacket for the evenings.

Humidity shouldn't be a problem at all. Drier air will filter in this weekend, so even when temps go to 80 or low 80s next week it won't be bad. Unless you get cold very easily short sleeves for the day with a light jacket for evening will probably be perfect.

[Minniefan68]

Hi Chris,
We leave in 9 days and so far your weather prediction looks great for the 16th-22nd. I sure hope it stays that way. You've been right on the money for our last two trips in '06 and '07.

Keep up the great work - thanks for maintaining the weather update post.

Cheryl

[Texas Tinkerbell Too]

Oh, man! We were hoping to see the shuttle launch on Friday. Thanks for the updates, Chris.

[Strmchsr]

Right now it doesn't look good for a shuttle launch on Friday. Regardless of the amount of rain I think low clouds / winds would be an issue. However, it all depends on the timing of this storm and that could potentially still change.

[tigger24601]

i know it's a little off topic but it's sooo weird that there's still hurricanes developing this late in the season when it's been so cool so early.

otherwise we leave sunday for our trip to the world. keep the beautiful weather comin.

[Strmchsr]

i know it's a little off topic but it's sooo weird that there's still hurricanes developing this late in the season when it's been so cool so early.

Even though it is much cooler across the US, water takes much longer to heat up/cool down. Directly along the Gulf Coast things are already pretty cool, but down in the Caribbean not so much, hence the reason Paloma was able to grow so strong. Also, there's a lot more that goes into hurricane development than temps.

I think that one was probably the last one, though, even though hurricane season lasts through the end of the month.

[BigRedDad]

Thanks for the update Strmchsr. I have been trying to keep an eye on the weather because it has been so crazy for 11/21 -11/27. I looked at different models also and they are all showing that the trough is not going to drop down and bring rain. It is looking like low 70s and upper 40s/low 50s Thanksgiving week.

[Strmchsr]

Thanks for the update Strmchsr. I have been trying to keep an eye on the weather because it has been so crazy for 11/21 -11/27. I looked at different models also and they are all showing that the trough is not going to drop down and bring rain. It is looking like low 70s and upper 40s/low 50s Thanksgiving week.

The problem is it depends on which model run and which model you look at. One run shows a deep trough Thanksgiving week, the next shows a more zonal flow. It's total craziness right now beyond about next Thursday. I generally use the 12z models every day for my forecast, but if I used the 06z you'd have a totally different long range. Hopefully it'll settle down in the next day or two. At the moment, though, it does look pretty comfortable with slightly below average temps for that week, but nothing brutal.

[ddcrna]

So Chris - if you had to make a really wild guess, (based on your expertise, of course ) what would you predict for our dates?

[DisneyorBust]

I just wanted to say "Thank You!" We are heading to WDW tomorrow and have been following your forecasts. Thanks again!

[Strmchsr]

So Chris - if you had to make a really wild guess, (based on your expertise, of course ) what would you predict for our dates?

The way the models are going right now it's basically throwing a dart at a spinning weather board to figure out what's going on that far out. However, given current trends I'd expect cooler than normal temps (60s to low 70s for highs and 40s for lows) and a rain chance every 3-4 days. I could be wrong and you'll see nothing but sunny skies and a high around 80, but while I don't have the details I think I have a decent read on the overall pattern right now.

I just wanted to say "Thank You!" We are heading to WDW tomorrow and have been following your forecasts. Thanks again!

You're welcome! Have a great trip!!!

[mouseketeer mom]

We are going for our first 2nd week in March trip next year. Please tell me it will be warm for us!!

[Strmchsr]

lol, that's a little far out for me to have any kind of clue as to what the weather will be doing. Chances are it'll be pretty comfortable. However, check the historic weather page in Info Central which will give you the exact conditions on the days of your trip over the last few years. That will at least give you a base to plan with.

[LandFan]

Possibly stormy on Dec 2nd - ugghh. Hope that doesn't impact our MVMCP!! Before or after would be better!

[Strmchsr]

Don't worry about it too much. That's changing with every model run. Wait till 7 days out before you start to worry one way or the other.

[LandFan]

Nah.We won't worry. Our trip is what we make of it. It would be nice to have MVMCP with no rain but if it happens, c'est la vie!

Thanks!

[robyn221]

Thanks for the forecast! Looks like the weather will be almost perfect for our WDW trip. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday! I know we will!

Robyn

[Strmchsr]

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday! I know we will!

Robyn

Thanks, Robyn! I hope you have a Happy Thanksgiving and a wonderful trip as well.