WDW Weather Forecast - September 29-Oct 15, 2010

[Emsparents]

Talk about letting the air out of my balloon. According to the forcast here all we have to look forward to on our upcoming trip is garbage weather and the chance for the parks to be closed. We have waited all year for this trip and now the hurricane season decides to ramp up and put Florida in its sights after 5 years of nothing! Sorry to rant but we had a lot riding on this trip and now it looks miserable! I am just so bummed and considering moving the trip all together. We are to fly to Orlando Sept 30 and return October 9. If we have to cancel or move the trip it will break my little girls heart. again sorry for the rant just very unexcited about a trip we were so excited about before

[Strmchsr]

We are to fly to Orlando Sept 30 and return October 9. If we have to cancel or move the trip it will break my little girls heart. again sorry for the rant just very unexcited about a trip we were so excited about before

I'm so sorry. I feel your pain. It really is a role of the dice to go during hurricane season. Don't make any decisions just yet. Read over the hurricane policy link I've posted so that you're aware of your options, but it's still possible that the storm will slide to the eastern side of Florida (or, less likely, but still possible) dissipate over Central America. The other storms are still "voodoo." They haven't formed yet, so a lot of this is up in the air. Hang on to a little hope. I think you'll have enough information to make your decision by Saturday or Sunday. The picture should be much clearer then. Check back this afternoon, also, for another update.

[brivers222]

For the 2nd week in October the weather is sure sounding bleek...

I guess its time to stock up on the $.87 toss away ponchos from walley-world (aka walmart) as well as that waterproof spray on our shoes... Rain isn't going to slow us down! Perhaps with the wind if we hit it right, it will speed us up!!! Need to get me some Daper Dan hair treatment to keep my perfect folicules in check Oh an can't forget to treat my car to some Rain-x for the trip... can't have the black pearl getting halted in the rain! (yes thats what i named my black honda Fit with jolly rogers on it)

It's appearing though there is a reason why i always went in May... Weather seems to be a little better. Then again in 25 days in May we have gone with about 1 total day of rain... I am sure this week is mother natures make up.

Makes my decision to have a plethera of TS ADRs seem pretty genius right now.

::EDIT:: this is my 222nd post... YAY!!!

[Strmchsr]

For the 2nd week in October the weather is sure sounding bleek...

Check the update from this afternoon and you'll see things look a little better. I imagine things will continue to go back and forth like that for a while so don't get too fixated on one specific scenario until you hear me say this is for sure what's going to happen.

[brivers222]

Check the update from this afternoon and you'll see things look a little better. I imagine things will continue to go back and forth like that for a while so don't get too fixated on one specific scenario until you hear me say this is for sure what's going to happen.

Coolio... yeah I am not getting too worked up. Really being down in disney in the rain will be better than being up in michigan in the rain! at least its warmer down there

[kcmckay]

First of all, Thank You for keeping us informed on all the action! It is much appreciated.
We are flying home from orlando to detroit on Oct 2 at 10am. Do you think the possible storm is going to cancel our flight?

[Cinderelley]

I am rather sad to see your departure date on your updates.

[Strmchsr]

First of all, Thank You for keeping us informed on all the action! It is much appreciated. We are flying home from orlando to detroit on Oct 2 at 10am. Do you think the possible storm is going to cancel our flight?

Definite possibility. Timing is everything, though, and we don't know the exact timing of the storm yet. According to this morning's models, you'll be staying put on Oct 2, but until the storm clears the Yucatan we can't be sure of the timing of the impact on Florida.

[Emsparents]

it should be picked up by a deep upper trough over the eastern third of the U.S. late next week. The GFS continues the idea of this one impacting South Florida in about a week, followed by a northeast motion up the East Coast of the U.S. Can you clarify this statement? So are we looking at possible storm at WDW October 2nd or October 10? .

The most likely solution now looks like some thunderstorms will begin the afternoon of Oct 1 with the hurricane hitting Florida around Tampa on Oct 2. That would definitely close the parks on Oct 2. Also a clarification on this. If your statement above is correct it is going up the east coast via south florida. How does this have it coming through Tampa and Orlando which is Central Florida?

Sorry for the confusion and questions I am just trying to make decisions which will impact my vacation and I am trying to understand this thing as best I can. Up till now all I have gotten is frustration. I check out the weather boards and every post, forcast, and outlook contradicts itself every 5 minutes! Between that and armchair meteorologists forcasting gloom and doom and a storms wiping florida off the face of the map, I am about to go nuts!

Any how thanks for the updates and information. heres hoping this thing goes poof and dissapears over central america!!!

[Strmchsr]

Can you clarify this statement? So are we looking at possible storm at WDW October 2nd or October 10? . Also a clarification on this. If your statement above is correct it is going up the east coast via south florida. How does this have it coming through Tampa and Orlando which is Central Florida?

I'm sorry for the frustration. I know it's difficult to plan a vacation that you look forward to and have something like this happen. I'll be here to walk you through all of it.

Ok...the issue about the trough. Basically, picture the atmosphere looking like a U over the eastern United States. The bottom of the U is the bottom of the trough. That is supposed to be over central Florida by the end of this week. The tropical system will link into the "U" and ride it from there. So, what will happen is the storm will approach, and impact, South Florida, but then will lift to the north along the Florida Gulf coast . As the U heads more NE the storm will come inland (around Tampa) move across central Florida) including Orlando) and emerge into the Atlantic Ocean where it will continue to ride the trough (the right side of the U) up the East Coast. For now, it looks like the storm will begin to impact South Florida on Oct 1, hit Orlando on Oct 2, and be out of Florida moving up the East Coast on Oct 3. That, however, is a model consensus. Every model has a slightly different track and timing. So, I'm putting my experience and expertise together with all of that to give you my best idea of what might happen, but that's why I keep saying it's not set in stone. From there, the models are keeping the other storms out there either south of Florida or out to sea in the Atlantic. So, at the moment, the only threat to Florida over the next couple of weeks appears to be this Saturday (or around that time).

I hope that helps, and please feel free to ask any questions you have. I want you to have all of the clarification and info you need. Seeing as I'm a native West Virginian, I want to do you right.

[Emsparents]

FINALLY someone with some sense!!!!

Thanks for your help with this I REALLY appreciate it!! Should of know you were a Mountaineer!!!!!

Thanks and God Bless, I will keep close tabs on your forecasts!

[Kbeauty63]

I'm leaving for WDW in the morning - it can rain on me - I don't care! I'm spending my birthday with The Mouse... And I'm thinking positive it won't rain on Tuesday night - so I can enjoy the Halloween party!
Karen

[Strmchsr]

I'm leaving for WDW in the morning - it can rain on me - I don't care! I'm spending my birthday with The Mouse... And I'm thinking positive it won't rain on Tuesday night - so I can enjoy the Halloween party!
Karen

I hope you have a great trip! I'll give a full update this afternoon, but looking at this morning's models, it looks like about a 50-50 shot of rain on Tuesday. Honestly, I think you will see some rain at some point during the day, but it doesn't look like anything too heavy or long-lasting. Maybe just intermittent showers. Shouldn't impact your MNSSHP enjoyment! I hope you have a !

[GrumpyFan]

The most likely solution now looks like some thunderstorms will begin the afternoon of Oct 1 with the hurricane hitting Florida around Tampa on Oct 2. That would definitely close the parks on Oct 2.

Sorry for the confusion and questions I am just trying to make decisions which will impact my vacation and I am trying to understand this thing as best I can. Up till now all I have gotten is frustration. I check out the weather boards and every post, forcast, and outlook contradicts itself every 5 minutes! Between that and armchair meteorologists forcasting gloom and doom and a storms wiping florida off the face of the map, I am about to go nuts!

Any how thanks for the updates and information. heres hoping this thing goes poof and dissapears over central america!!!

I understand your frustration, we'll be there 10/4 - 10/9, so we're watching to see what's going to happen as well. However, living in Houston, and being a veteran of numerous trips to WDW during hurricane season, we've seen these things a few times. Anything can happen.

It may not be very comforting, but the best you can do right now is be patient and wait it out. As Strmchsr says, it's still "voodoland", meaning anything greater than 4 or 5 days is pretty near guess-work. At this time, this storm is still in the Caribbean and is about to make landfall in Nicaragua, once it does it could go anywhere. The computer forecast models look like spaghetti or a spider, which means nobody really knows. So, hold tight, and just keep watching, or if it makes you nervous, don't watch, just wait until a day or two before and see what happens.

The way I figure is, we've never been there when one of these hit, it could be a neat new experience. Not that I want to see it happen, but, from what I've heard, Disney is one of the best places to be during a storm like this, they take really good care of their guests. So, wait and see.

BTW: We're staying at Pop as well, maybe we'll run into each other.

[BigRedDad]

I can't put the website in here directly, but do a google search for "Crown Weather". This site has maps out the beejeezis. You may be able to get a visual of exactly what Stormchaser is saying.

If you want doom and gloom information, go to any of the local weather stations that feed on panic and fear.

[EpcotFanatic]

If you want doom and gloom information, go to any of the local weather stations that feed on panic and fear.

Been there done that, just ask Strmchsr. I'm REALLY relieved though. My flight leaves at 1:25 on Friday the 1st, 99.9% sure a thunderstorm won't keep us grounded.

[I_Love_Disney]

First of all... thank you so much for providing this information. I've been to WDW during the months of Sept/Oct for the past 4 years, and this is the first time I'm a little apprehensive.

My flight leaves the Westcoast the evening of Sept 30, arriving early Oct 1. Should I be worried about cancellations?

I really don't know what to do at this point. I'm not concerned about the weather once we arrive, just my flight getting there.

Thanks again!

[Strmchsr]

My flight leaves the Westcoast the evening of Sept 30, arriving early Oct 1. Should I be worried about cancellations?

It all depends on timing. The good news is you're coming from the right direction. Flying from the west you'll stand a much lower risk of getting flight delays than if you were travelling along the East Coast. As for your specific flight, though, if the storm hits Oct 2, no problem. If it hits during the day of Oct 1, you may very well face delays/cancellations getting into Orlando. This is all still a huge IF, though. The National Hurricane Center is projecting a pretty long stint over land for Matthew and it could be he dissipates before getting to Florida.

[BugeyedMuggy]

I hope your latest forecast is correct or an even better one .. We leave on Oct 2nd. Last nite we bought refundable tickets for Oct 1st & the 3rd. Hopefully we can use our original tickets as they are one third the price. But we will get there one way or another.

[YatesMom]

Sorry if this is a redundant question...
Our trip dates are as stated above. From the most recent update, it sounds like there doesn't appear to be any storms currently going to mess up our plans for the beginning of our vacation. Is there still a possibility of another storm on Oct 5? Or are we pretty much in the all clear???
THANKS so very much for all the time you take to ease the minds of those of us headed to the World with our little ones! It really helps to be prepared!!