If you choose not to buy the Individual Lightning Lane, you have two options for a minimal wait. Granted, "minimal" is relative! The lowest wait might be 25 minutes, or it may be 75+ minutes depending on lots of variables. I think your plan to get there at early entry (leave your hotel AT LEAST an hour before early entry begins if you really want to have the lowest wait possible) and riding first thing is the best Plan A. Figgy is right that sometimes the ride system needs some "warm up" time first thing in the morning so if you get to the ride entrance and see a lot of CM's out front that's a sign it won't be open. You could hang around for 25-30 minutes and wait, or I would recommend going to Smuggler's Run and then checking back.

Your second option would be to get in line a minute before park closing. If you're going to be in the park all day, this might be a good strategy. They will let you ride if you're in line at 8:59 p.m. if official park closing is at 9 p.m. However, the same ride closure risk applies. Really, this ride goes down a lot and you just never know. So if you're gambling on the park close strategy and the ride is down, you won't ride at all.

Rise is an incredible experience and worth the wait and the price tag to buy the Lightning Lane, in my opinion. If it's your #1 priority, get up early, experience it, and then spend the rest of your day enjoying the park!