WDW Weather Forecast - August 31-Sept 16, 2007

[Strmchsr]

Each day in August, usually between 11 and 1 central time, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment. If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Friday pm, August 31, 2007
What you got today will pretty much be cloned over the next two weeks - highs in the 89-92 range and lows in the 70-74 range with afternoon thunderstorms each day. Once the thunderstorms come through they'll cool things off 5-10 degrees. As always, have fun if it rains, but get inside if you see lightning. I wish I had something more scientific to give you, but that's pretty much the bottom line through mid September. A couple of fronts try to push down towards WDW, but will run out of energy before arriving. A tropical event can always change everything, but barring one of those, expect this forecast to hold.

Travel Impact
Newark is at 1 hour, and La Guardia and Chicago are at 30 minutes. Mostly anywhere from Dallas to Nashville to Charlotte and south could see a minor delay today or tomorrow due to thunderstorms developing. Expect a good bit of turbulence flying in or out of Orlando.

Tropics
Looks like we have Tropical Storm Felix on our hands; I will have the data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the region shortly; this system will move through the Windward Islands during the next few hours, and will journey through the southern Caribbean over the weekend. This is a low latitude tropical cyclone, and all of the models move it into either Central America or the Yucatan peninsula next week, with no entry into the Gulf of Mexico. This is basically the exact track that Dean took. However, the upper high isn't nearly as powerful now as with Dean, so while WDW probably has nothing to worry about, folks in Texas need to keep at least one eye on this thing, however unlikely a turn to the north might be.

The GFS has a hurricane approaching the east coast around Sept 13, then turning to the north. This is nothing specific right now, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

[courtney2006]

Of course, we're heading to WDW August 18-25 and now the possibility of a "strong hurricane approaching Florida on the 21st". I take full responsibility. I don't think I've ever planned a trip and had good weather.
Anyway, still the chance things will change. Thanks for keeping us informed. You can be sure that I'll be checking back every day!

[disneyfan369]

Of course, we're heading to WDW August 18-25 and now the possibility of a "strong hurricane approaching Florida on the 21st". I take full responsibility. I don't think I've ever planned a trip and had good weather.
Anyway, still the chance things will change. Thanks for keeping us informed. You can be sure that I'll be checking back every day!

Agreed!

P.S. Where do you get this info, Chris? Just curious!

[Strmchsr]

P.S. Where do you get this info, Chris? Just curious!

All of my forecast comes from looking at the various weather models - GFS, NAM, NGM, UK, and so on. I do also talk to friends in the field and see their thoughts on the models, but mostly I just look at the raw data. You can also look at the NOAA site and the National Hurricane Center site to see their thoughts on things.


As for the hurricane I mentioned approaching FL, don't get worked up about anything in the long range. The models handle patterns well, not specifics, that far out. I mentioned it appearing on the model only to note the models picking up a shift in pattern towards more favorable tropical storm conditions, not because I actually believe that specific storm will develop. The hurricane I mentioned yesterday is still on the 06Z model run today (though I'll do my forecast update one the 12Z run comes out around noon CDT), but now it's around the Bahamas and curving more towards the Carolina rather than FL. Again, this still doesn't mean that specific storm will even develop, but that the models are picking up on a shift in the overall pattern around mid-August that will become favorable for hurricane development. Keep checking and I'll keep you informed as best I can.

[mrte62]

Chris:

For those of us heading to WDW on Friday, it looks like we can expect the "usual" mid August week of weather:

hot, humid with the possibility of passing afternoon showers.

Still sounds a lot better to a family that had to change hotels when Hurricane Charley knocked the power out of the one we were staying at!

[Strmchsr]

hot, humid with the possibility of passing afternoon showers.

You got it. The good news for you is that it should be a little less hot next week than it was this week. Low 90s is bad, but I'll take it over upper 90s like this week!

[sleepingbooty]

We'll be down on Friday night, and although pretty darn hot, it looks like it'll actually be better weather than here in the midwest. We had a high today of 101!

[BronxTigger]

Pardon my ignorance, but what is 12Z?

I'm going to WDW August 18-22; looks like it will be hot and humid with afternoon thunderstorms, and a slight chance of a hurricane. Sounds similar to NYC weather. Oh well, at least I'm used to it!

[Strmchsr]

Pardon my ignorance, but what is 12Z?

No worries! 12Z refers to 12:00 Zulu Time. The models are run every 6 hours and because they are worldwide models they are always date stamped in Zulu time instead of central or eastern or other place specific. If I say the 12Z GFS run then I am referring to the Global Forecast Systems weather model which began running at 8:00 am EDT (usually take 4-5 hours to complete the run). Because the GFS is a global model is takes data and patterns from all over into account making it the most accurate of the long range models. I often use the NGM (Nested Grid Model) for short range forecasting. It only goes 84 hours out but has a much higher resolution, often increasing accuracy in the short term.

The "official" name for this is UTC (Coordinated Universal Time - I know the initials don't match the name. It's because the UN still considers French the Universal Language and so the initials appear in their French way of saying) and, until 1972, was called Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). The reason we refer to it as Zulu is because the phonetic alphabet is applied to every time zone (A=alpha, F=Foxtrot, etc). It just so happens that the universal time has been giving the letter Z or Zulu (FYI - Eastern Time is Romeo, Central Time is Sierra, Mountain is Tango, and Pacific is Uniform).

During daylight savings time in the US 00Z is 8 pm EDT, 06Z is 2 am EDT, 12Z is 8 am EDT, 18Z is 2 pm EDT. Because UTC does not change for daylight savings, just knock those times back an hour for standard time. Hope that helps!

[Strmchsr]

We'll be down on Friday night, and although pretty darn hot, it looks like it'll actually be better weather than here in the midwest. We had a high today of 101!

Yes, you'll definitely be better off in WDW. The heat bubble that's been sitting over the SE will slide west beginning Saturday so while temps over the SE (including FL) will back off a few degrees, the midwest will be blistering.

[Lucyrella]

We are leaving on the 25th of August and I will be interested in seeing what the weather is like in FL for those dates when the time gets closer, however, it can't be worse than what we are experiencing in Evansville IN right now, it is 102 today, and it will hang around for a few more days. So the 90's is sounding really good to me right now!

[cinderellangel]

Strmchsr: Thanks so much for the weather update. My best friend & I heading down to WDW on Saturday and leaving for our 4-night cruise the next day. After that, we will be spending four days in WDW. The weather looks awesome with the usual rain, which is brief. I'm lookng foward to the trip!!! Have fun, all!! God bless and happy Mickey!!

[BronxTigger]

Booo to the hurricane predictions. I hate to fly so the last thing I need is a nearby hurricane on the 22nd, when I fly out at 4:30 up the east coast to NYC. Yikes.

[Strmchsr]

Booo to the hurricane predictions.

Don't worry. I'm not predicting anything just yet other than I think the tropics that have been so silent thus far will no longer be so in another week or two. The 12Z and 18Z models both maintained the development of this hurricane around Aug 19, but both of them took the thing up around the Bahamas and then up the east coast, but remaining out to sea and not affecting the USA at all. However, now both of them develop a second storm in the Caribbean around Aug 24 headed for FL around Aug 26. The specific storms are all voodoo until one actually develops, but the pattern shift I think we can be pretty certain of.

[pixiesmimi]

Oh great! We are heading out on August 26th! Of course, living in LA close to the FL border, I know that anything can happen and it can go any direction if it does happen. I was just hoping that this year will be like last year with few if no hurricanes. Here's hoping that if it does, it heads towards the west, even though I don't wish that on anyone. Last year we headed home just ahead of a tropical storm and really glad that we did. I didn't even think about it being hurricane season when I planned our trip. I was just trying to plan around our anniversary.

[Strmchsr]

Oh great! We are heading out on August 26th! Of course, living in LA close to the FL border, I know that anything can happen and it can go any direction if it does happen.

Don't worry. Until the storm actually develops the models are just pure speculation. Yes, it looks like tropical storm season is about to ramp up, but any specific storms are just voodoo until they actually develop.

[jans2kids]

Strmchsr; can you clarify for someone from the northeast what the effect of a hurricane hitting south Florida would have on WDW. Is that close enough to cause problems in WDW or just some moderate to heavy rains and for what length of time would it take to move by have skys clear up again or is it different with each storm. We arrive Wed the 15th untli Sunday the 26th.

Thanks

[Strmchsr]

Strmchsr; can you clarify for someone from the northeast what the effect of a hurricane hitting south Florida would have on WDW. Is that close enough to cause problems in WDW or just some moderate to heavy rains and for what length of time would it take to move by have skys clear up again or is it different with each storm. We arrive Wed the 15th untli Sunday the 26th.Thanks

It all depends upon where it hits. If it's around Miami, then WDW probably wouldn't see more than a few thunderstorms and a blustery day. If it hits farther north, it can create more of a problem. Regardless, you're almost always looking at less than 24 hours of park impact. WDW has only closed 4-5 days due to weather in it's entire history, and all of those have been within the last 10 years.

[BronxTigger]

I'm trying to find some pictures of these tracks you speak of, but I can't find any. Could you pm me some links or point me in the right direction? Thanks. I'm getting a weebit nervous but there's not much I can do about it so I'm trying not to freak out LOL.

[Strmchsr]

Until the storm actually develops there won't be a combined graphic showing all the model tracks. I have to go through and look at all of the various raw model data, which probably wouldn't be very helpful to you. What I suggest is to Google the National Hurricane Center. I certainly read their thoughts (among others) when I'm putting together the forecast for Intercot. Once any storm develops all the info you need on it will be at that site.

I can't stress enough, though, don't worry. I promised to keep everyone informed as far in advance as possible, so I'm doing that. Having made that statement, I also want to state that this storm is still around 10-11 days away from any potential landfall and the GFS is notorious for flip-flopping the track. I feel certain that a hurricane will develop in the next few days, but as to whether or not it hits the USA, I have no certainty in that right now at all. Just try to take some deep breaths and relax. I'll be sure to let you know when it's time to panic.