WDW Weather Forecast

[Vito]

Ike is currently projected to hit southern Texas early Saturday morning. Obviously since this is still 4 days away it's not certain yet.

But as of right now, based on what Chris has said and the current projected track and all the data, WDW looks to be definitely out of the woods, and forecasts have nothing more than a bit of above average amounts of rain for the next couple days.

They've stopped tracking the remnants of Josephine on the NHC website, so I'm guessing that it's a good bet that one is gone for good.

If I've learned anything at all studying tropical weather websites laboriously over the past few weeks , the next two weeks or so look to be mostly normal/typical Florida late summer weather, meaning there shouldn't be any tropical storm activity threatening Florida. Hopefully that also means nothing more than the occasional t-storm (which would be good news for me since I'm leaving in 4 days!).

Thoughts and prayers definitely going out right now to those who Ike has already done some damage to (looks like parts of Cuba got hit pretty hard), and also to those who remain in Ike's potential path. Stay safe!

[Strmchsr]

If I've learned anything at all studying tropical weather websites laboriously over the past few weeks , the next two weeks or so look to be mostly normal/typical Florida late summer weather, meaning there shouldn't be any tropical storm activity threatening Florida.

That's probably true, though never definite. The pulse that caused all these storms is dying down rapidly so that's good news for the tropical scene over the next few weeks.

However, if I've learned anything at all studying tropical weather (and all other kinds of weather) laboriously for the last 18 years it's that we don't know nearly as much about the weather as we sometimes think we do and as soon as we forget that Mother Nature reminds us.

[tinksmom02]

So, I'll finally call it - no impact on WDW. You can all breathe easier now.

Thanks, Chris! Just what I've been waiting to hear!

I really appreciate all of your updates!

[kittysomerville]

It's good to know Ike won't be around WDW for our vacation next week (14th-21st). I'm still kinda holding my breath about it since I'm flying out of the New Orleans airport on the 14th. Doesn't look like it'll hit close enought to affect New Orleans, but I don't know!

[Strmchsr]

It's good to know Ike won't be around WDW for our vacation next week (14th-21st). I'm still kinda holding my breath about it since I'm flying out of the New Orleans airport on the 14th. Doesn't look like it'll hit close enought to affect New Orleans, but I don't know!

Ike is favoring the southern track and shouldn't bother New Orleans at all. However, should Ike brush New Orleans he should still be done before you leave.

[Vito]

That's probably true, though never definite. The pulse that caused all these storms is dying down rapidly so that's good news for the tropical scene over the next few weeks.

However, if I've learned anything at all studying tropical weather (and all other kinds of weather) laboriously for the last 18 years it's that we don't know nearly as much about the weather as we sometimes think we do and as soon as we forget that Mother Nature reminds us.

LOL Thanks Chris. My only reasoning was that if something was coming in the next week to two weeks, we'd see it forming now. Hopefully that ends up holding true and no mystery storm pops up out of nowhere!

Thanks for the updates

[kittysomerville]

Ike is favoring the southern track and shouldn't bother New Orleans at all. However, should Ike brush New Orleans he should still be done before you leave.

Thanks Chris! Your soothing words are better than a xanax! haha!

[mommy2lg]

I am scheduled to fly out of Houston Intercontinental on Sunday am. Do you think that we'll have any problems?

[Strmchsr]

LOL Thanks Chris. My only reasoning was that if something was coming in the next week to two weeks, we'd see it forming now. Hopefully that ends up holding true and no mystery storm pops up out of nowhere!

Thanks for the updates

You're probably right about that. Because the Gulf has been worked over by Gustav and now Ike the upwelling in the Gulf will tend to temper any formation there. Most storms this time of year come off the African coast. That's not 100% the case, but probably about 75%, so I agree with you that there probably won't be anything soon.

[Strmchsr]

I am scheduled to fly out of Houston Intercontinental on Sunday am. Do you think that we'll have any problems?

to Intercot!!!!

Well, it looks like Ike is going to come ashore early, early Saturday morning somewhere around Corpus Christi. This morning's NHC track have Ike around Waco by 1 am Sunday. The models aren't all in agreement about where Ike comes ashore, and a million things can happen between now and Sunday, as Ike has already shown, but given what I'm seeing right now I don't think you'll have any problems getting out. By Sunday morning Ike should be weak enough and far enough north to not cause Houston too many problems. The only problem I could forsee right now is if they cancel flights on Saturday and are trying to put people on flights on Sunday.

[Vito]

You're probably right about that. Because the Gulf has been worked over by Gustav and now Ike the upwelling in the Gulf will tend to temper any formation there. Most storms this time of year come off the African coast. That's not 100% the case, but probably about 75%, so I agree with you that there probably won't be anything soon.

Yay, I maybe learned something! Thanks, Chris

Let's hope that there's no more storms for a while, not just for the sake of our vacations, but for everyone's safety!

[disneymad1998]

Hi Chris,

We are heading from the UK to WDW next week (18/9) - I had a look on the NHC website and see 2 yellow blobs that are Tropical Cyclone formations - Can you fill me in on what these are??

Panicky Disneymad1998

[Strmchsr]

No reason to panic! Those yellow blobs are tropical waves (a very loosely organized collection of thunderstorms around a central low pressure system) which could potentially, at some point, develop into a tropical system. Yellow means there's a low chance (less than 25%) that this system will strengthen into a tropical system in the next 48 hours. The first one is the remnants of Josephine. If any development occurs there it would be out of the way before you arrived. The second is a tropical wave going through very unfavorable conditions so we'll have to see if it survives that before deciding if it might become something. No reason to worry though. Relax and have a good trip.

[Gregandmel]

Ok Chris - help me out here. I've been following the extended weather forecast (up to 15 days out) for our upcoming Oct. 5-11 trip (today is Friday Sept. 26th) and I've been SO excited to see that the temps are dipping. But now on one of the weather forecasts this morning, it looks like it HEATS UP starting Oct. 5th and gets back to humid and upper 80's (instead of the lovely upper 70's and lower 80's like I was hoping for). The heat is horrid on me, which is why I planned for this time of year. What do your indications say at this point? Is there a heat wave coming through during that time??? Help!! :-) Thank ya!

[Strmchsr]

That's the problem with "voodooland" (the time beyond the 7 days). It's always changing. I know what you mean. For a while the models teased me with low 80s or upper 70s for this coming week during our trip and now it looks like that won't pan out.

Now, in answer to your direct question, yeah, in looking at the models this morning it shows a bit of a high pressure bubble building over WDW around October 5 and lasting a few days. But this is just one model run and that is in contrast to what the models have shown the last few days. That said, the average high for early to mid October is still around 90, so even mid 80s is below normal.

I'd say the warmer temps makes more sense to me from a climatological standpoint. I've been very skeptical of the long range models from the start. It's always possible that a big trough breaks through and drops cooler air early, but generally you don't see the temps in the 70s at WDW until November.

Still, this isn't certain yet. Give it a couple of more days to see what the models say and have a good trip no matter what!

[Gregandmel]

Ugh - Ok - thanks for your insight. I knew it was going to be hotter than KC when I booked the trip (it's been a nice cool 80 here in KC for quite some time) so I was hoping for the best that the temps might dip before we left. Guess I just need to get back into the "hot" mindset before we leave. Maybe we'll get lucky and it'll change in the next 7-10 days, but that's what t-shirts are for, right? Thanks again! I anxiously await your updated forecast everyday!! :-)

[Tick-Tock]

Chris, I just wanted to thank you for your "voodooland" comments on any upcoming activity, even activity that doesn't impact WDW. We're heading to NYC next week for a New England cruise and your comments have been really helpful to me for that trip. So thanks!

[MinnieMommie]

We will be in Tampa Oct 5-7 and then at DW Oct 7-10. You are right - all the models are all over the place and change every day. When do you think we will be able to count on what is being forecast? Maybe by Oct 3rd we will have a good idea of what the 5th through 10th will bring? What are your thoughts?

[Strmchsr]

We will be in Tampa Oct 5-7 and then at DW Oct 7-10. You are right - all the models are all over the place and change every day. When do you think we will be able to count on what is being forecast? Maybe by Oct 3rd we will have a good idea of what the 5th through 10th will bring? What are your thoughts?

It depends on when all the models settle down. However, since there's no skill at all beyond 7 days (the models just don't have the resolution to be very accurate that far out) I'd say end o the week before you'll know for that entire time frame.

[MinnieMommie]

Thank you much and let's hope for the best. I have told my family that rain or shine we will have fun and that we are fortunate just to have the opportunity to visit.