WDW Weather Forecast

[Strmchsr]

Each day in September, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Sunday am, September 28, 2008
Hey, everyone. I'm headed out for my own WDW trip in a few minutes. So, since like many of you I refuse to pay $10/day for internet that's free everywhere else I'll be away from the weather desk until next Saturday (Oct 4). First off, yes, there is a tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico headed towards FL that MAY turn into a depression. Probably means Tuesday will be very wet (and my MNSSHP will be rained out) but strong shear should keep it from developing into anything stronger.

Now, to if you need weather info before I get back, try these links:

1.) WFTV, Channel 9 in Orlando

2.) Weather Underground Orlando forecast

3.) National Hurricane Center to stay up to date on any tropical news

Hope that helps until I get back. For those of you going this week, highs will be in the 84-86 range pretty much through Thursday and 86-88 for Friday through Sunday. Monday could see a couple of isolated showers, at least part of Tuesday will be wet, though I don't think it'll be an all day rain, and Wednesday through next Sunday looks dry.


Travel Impact
Delays are possible today from DC up to Maine. Pretty much the same are could be impacted tomorrow along with south Florida.

Tropics
Hurricane Kyle is about 140 miles south southeast of Nantucket this morning. Kyle is still a minimal hurricane. It is moving north northeast at nearly 25 mph. It is moving over colder water, but the quick forward speed will limit the weakening. In fact, Kyle may remain a hurricane until just before landfall near the Bay of Fundy between New Brunswick and Nova Scotia around midnight tonight. Kyle will bring tropical storm force winds to Nantucket and the Eastern Cape this afternoon. Then tonight, as the center approaches land, tropical storm force winds will affect Downeast Maine east of Portland. Strong tropical storm force winds could affect the extreme eastern coast of Maine, but the highest winds should occur in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in Canada. Environment Canada is warning that extensive tree damage and power outages will occur. Storm surge should not be a big problem. Rains of up to 3 inches will affect eastern New England and the Maritime Provinces of Canada.

There are some signs that a tropical depression could form over the southern Gulf of Mexico in the next couple of days. It would move northeast toward the Florida Peninsula. Strong wind shear should limit development. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, two other disturbances, but prospects for development are slim.

[Strmchsr]

Since so many have asked about it here's the repost of the WDW hurricane cancellation policy:

Hurricane Policy FAQ

From June 1 to November 30 in the event a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center for the Orlando area or for the guest's place of residence within 7 days before the scheduled arrival date, the guest may call in advance to reschedule or cancel their Walt Disney Travel Co. Magic Your Way vacation package without any cancellation or change fees imposed by Disney. This temporary policy also applies to most Walt Disney World Resort room-only reservations booked directly with Disney, as well as reservations at Disney's Vero Beach Resort or Disney's Hilton Head Island Resort in the event a hurricane warning is issued for those destinations.

Q. What can I do if a hurricane warning is issued?
A. If a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center for the Orlando area or for your place of residence no more than seven (7) days before your scheduled arrival date, you may call in advance to reschedule or cancel your Walt Disney Travel Co. Magic Your Way vacation package and most room only reservations (booked directly with Disney) without any cancellation or change fees imposed by Disney. This policy also applies to Disney's Vero Beach Resort or Disney's Hilton Head Island Resort in the event a hurricane warning is issued for those destinations.

Q. Will I be responsible for any cancellation or change fees or other amounts?
A. If you have products and services provided by third party suppliers included in your vacation, such as airlines, hotels, car rental agencies or vacation insurance companies, you will continue to be responsible for any non-refundable payments, as well as cancellation or change fees assessed by those suppliers. The policy does not apply to certain special events or dining experiences.

Q. What if I prefer to reschedule my vacation to a different date because of a hurricane warning? Will I be able to get my same accommodations?
A. If you are scheduled to arrive within seven (7) days of the hurricane warning, you may call us in advance to reschedule without Disney imposed change fee. All amounts you paid to Disney for rooms, park tickets, Disney dining plans and other Disney products and services will be applied toward your new reservation. Any discounts or free offers applicable to your original vacation will not apply to the rescheduled vacation. We cannot guarantee availability of similar accommodations for the new travel dates. The policy does not apply to certain special events and dining experiences.

Q. I received a special offer when I booked my vacation. If I reschedule will I get the same special offer?
A. All amounts you paid to Disney for rooms, park tickets, Disney dining plans and other Disney products and services will be applied toward your new reservation. Any discounts or free offers applicable to your original vacation will not apply to the rescheduled vacation. The policy does not apply to certain special events and dining experiences.

Q. If I want to cancel or reschedule my vacation, what should I do with my airline tickets?
A. If you booked your air travel through the Walt Disney Travel Co. and you want to reschedule, we will attempt to re-book your air travel. But remember, you will be responsible for any cancellation or change fees imposed by the airline. If you did not book your air travel through the Walt Disney Travel Co., you should contact the airline.

Q. I did not book my package through the Walt Disney Travel Co. Does this policy apply to my package too?
A. No, you should contact your travel agent or tour operator directly for information relating to the cancellation and change policies that apply to your package.

Q. I have a sports or group package. Does this policy apply to my package?
A. No, the policy only applies to Walt Disney Travel Co. Magic Your Way packages. It does not apply to sports, youth, or other group or special event rooms or packages and does not apply to meetings and conventions.

[Strmchsr]

And as an added bonus here's the WDW Hurricane Strategy:

Phase 5
(Monitoring Storm Possible)
Review current plan, checklists and business recovery plans. Review personnel and resource availability for the ride-out crew. Verify contact numbers and emergency data. Prepare WDW Emergency Operations Center for activation.

Phase 4
(Storm likely within 24–36 hrs)
General readiness imposed. Brief personnel. Review checklists. Consider possible shut down of long lead operations and not starting extended operations. Limited activation and staffing of WDW Emergency Operations Center.

Phase 3
(Storm probable within 12–24 hrs)
Intensify clean up and tie down. Prepare for phase 2 activity. Selected ride-out crew personnel given the opportunity to secure their personal property. Turn in excess radios and vehicles. WDW Emergency Operations Center opens and is fully staffed. Note: Generally this is when the WDW Emergency Operations Center, command centers, and command posts will be fully activated. However, this is an Executive Policy Team decision.

Phase 2
(Storm impending)
Magic Kingdom, Epcot, Disney MGM Studios, Animal Kingdom and Downtown Disney close. Guest campground trailers removed and secured by the guests. Scheduled hotel and campground guests notified of conditions. Complete all clean up and tie down short of shutdown. Authorized ride-out families move to pre-designated shelters. Ride-out crew fully staffed at start of phase 1 or as directed by the WDW Emergency Operations Center. Personnel not in ride-out crew released as soon as possible.

Phase 1
(Storm imminent, take shelter)
Shutdown all activities and immediately take shelter. Fulfill ride-out requirement plans.

Post Storm Phase
Command Centers submit situation reports to WDW Emergency Operations Center. Establish business resumption / recovery schedule. Notify employees through media and cast Member emergency lines of call back as directed by WDW Emergency Operations Center.

[merlinmagic4]

[QUOTE=Strmchsr;1729618]

Weather at WDW - Updated Monday am, August 31, 2008
Today marks my 2 year anniversary of doing this daily thread. So Happy 2 Year's To "Weather At WDW"

Happy 2 Year Anniversary! Thanks for the reports. I know I read them whether I have a trip planned or not!

[mrs.jacksparrow]

A very very big thank you to you and happy anniversary! Wishing you many many more....you do a great thing for all us Disney travlers!

[Crow]

thanks for taking the time to do this.
Ive been looking at it, since I arrive at WDW on Wed

[AJHUNT2]

A very very big thank you to you and happy anniversary! Wishing you many many more....you do a great thing for all us Disney travlers! :

Totally agree!

[luvdiznee]

Happy Anniversary. And Thank You for the reports/info.

[disneygeek84]

Thank you again Chris for keep our feet on the ground about this storm. I've been watching the news this morning just to see exactly where it is, but they're driving me nuts! So thank you very much for giving us a more realistic view of what's going on down there!

[tink03]

Happy Anniversary to you!
I know that ever since I became a member of the Intercot family I always read your reports daily. Keep up your famous service I know we all appreciate your reports, and I especially will be reading daily and closely we fly out on th 18th to the World!!


Thanks Chris!!

[BronxTigger]

Happy Anniversary!

I agree with you about the media saturation, particularly about weather. I remember in Denver anytime it snowed they would CANCEL other programs so they could go into 24 Hour snow coverage - in Colorado! I lived in the Denver area for 8 years an only once was a snow storm destructive - roofs were collapsing all over the place.

I like the information - to a point. The saturation coverage does nothing but make everybody nervous and agitated.

[pianobabe]

Thank you for all of these reports. Congratulations on your anniversary. It is wonderful to have our own Intercot Weather Center. Keep up the good work.

[Gibbs]

Tropics

***UPDATED 6:45 am CDT*** - September 1

Let me say up front I am increasingly concerned about the steady stream of hype on weather events in recent years. Every time the weather gets hot in August, it becomes a “life threatening heat wave”. Spring flood events become “something like we have never seen before”. And, this hurricane, Gustav, in recent days has been described as “the storm of the century” and the “mother of all storms”. One national reported called it the “most powerful storm to ever move into the U.S.” All of this, of course, is not true. Maybe it is the constant 24 hour cable news cycle, hopes of politicians (wanting to save their constituents from a horrible tragedy), or the worldview of reporters, but I sure hope this trend doesn’t continue. We have always had hurricanes in the Gulf, hot weather in August, and floods in spring. This is not anything new, you know. I continue to advise that people don’t get their weather information from politicians or reporters. Nice people, but I don’t know of any that have training in atmospheric science. And, for the lunatics that have turned this into a political issue, shame on them. Some of the quotes I have read are simply outrageous.

Chirs, All I can say to that is AMEN!!! You are right on with that comment. As a 39 year resident of Florida, I've seen quite a few storms come through. We take everyone of them serisously. I get my forcast and intensity information directly form the NHC and STRMCHSR on intercot. I only use local news for local info, such as evacuation orders, goverment and school closings, road and bridge closings, ect... I find disgusting the amount of hype associated with these storms. I remember watching a reporter from a 24 hour weather channel who was in the middle of a 75 mph hurricane, holding on to a stop sign like we was getting ready to be blown away. He failed to notice an older gentelman behind him walking his dog.. That was one of the funniest things I've seen.

on your 2 year anniversary!!

[Janmac]

Two years! It seems like only yesterday. Where does the time go?

I have been appreciating your reports regarding Hannah as some of our extended family group are flying into MCO on Friday afternoon, non stop from Kansas City and one [unspecified] stop from Portland, OR.

(DH, I and my grandniece are driving down - figure we'll get some shade from Gustav some of the way, between Wednesday and Friday.)

I couldn't agree more about the media hype - interesting Michael Crichton book about that, tho most folks probably think the book is about global warming.

And speaking of media hype, global warming, and serious weather, I saw a program on tv (failed to catch the title) with several fellows (PhD types of various climatological fields) giving their opinions about long term climate and change. One said that while global warming brings changes, it might actually save lives, as more folks die from cold than heat. He said things will change, and not for the better for some areas, but overall, the changes could be beneficial.

In the meantime, we will keep monitoring your weather forecasts - thanks, Chris!

Jan

[watch4pixiedust]

So Much for 2 yrs of great work! It's a pleasure to be able to come here and read interesting, helpful, real, understandable info about weather in the World. Your expertise and caring come through in your dailey updates and answers to our many questions. Is there an Intercot Award for Excellence?? I'd give it to you!

[Strmchsr]

Is there an Intercot Award for Excellence?? I'd give it to you!

You'd have to talk to John about that one.

Thanks, everyone. Honestly, it's my pleasure to do it. I wouldn't have done it for pretty much 730 straight days if I didn't love doing it, but I appreciate your appreciation. It makes it worthwhile to know it's a helpful service.

[azdisneymom]

Wow 2 years! I, for one, am grateful. Our last trip was in January when that cold front moved through. I was able to pack warmer clothes than I would have normally because of your posts.

Thank you for keeping us up to date on the weather!

[Mousemates]

thanks for the updates....DW is a bit nervous about the weather for a trip with her mom and sisters (flying into orlando on the seventh).

[Strmchsr]

thanks for the updates....DW is a bit nervous about the weather for a trip with her mom and sisters (flying into orlando on the seventh).

Well, Hannah shouldn't be an issue unless she does something unexpected (possible, but not likely) and will be long gone by the time they fly in. Ike is an unknown right now, but tell her not to worry. Should Ike create problems I'll give you plenty of notice and she'll be able to evaluate the situation then. If they happen to be in WDW during a storm Disney takes VERY good care of their guests during a hurricane and it shouldn't put a damper on things for long.

[iluvdizney2]

I was getting nervous as we are driving down with 2 people who have never gone before, and we have a wedding we are going to as well...I am sure there will be something going on, not hoping for a huricane, but thinking that one may be likely when we get there...we will be driving down and there at WDW the 21-26th.
o well...it could be worse, I could be home in a huricane...instead WDW will be much nicer to get stuck in, if need be.