WDW Weather Forecast - August 31-Sept 16, 2010

[Strmchsr]

Each day in August, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Tuesday pm, August 31, 2010
Today turned out not too bad with a high of 90. With sinking air behind Earl, it looks like things should be pretty dry with only a very small chance of an isolated shower through Friday. Highs will run 91-93. Saturday and Sunday a little humidity returns so shower chances will be slightly better. Highs will be 92-94. Monday and Tuesday there's a good chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms firing up. The chance of any one place getting wet will be 1 in 3. Highs will be 90-92. Lows are going to run 73-75 all week.

Long range...September 8-14 will stay in the low 90s for highs and low to mid 70s for lows. Signs are pointing towards a nice front pushing south by mid-month which could mean some rain and thunderstorms along with cooler temps around Sept 15. Currently most models have the storm fizzling as it hits Florida, so it wouldn't be a major rain event, nor cool down. Just a few scattered showers and highs dropping to the mid 80s for Sept 15-16.

Travel Impact
No major delays today or tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
Hurricane Earl has maximum sustained winds of 135 mph this afternoon. It has weakened a little due to an eyewall replacement cycle (notice no clear hurricane eye), but is expected to intensify some more over the next 2 days. After that, as it starts to encounter some wind shear near the US East Coast, it should weaken again, but still be at least a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph.
The track of Earl is the big question, since it will almost certainly be an intese hurricane as it approaches the east coast. Earl is trying to turn NW today, into a weakness in the upper-level ridge left by Hurricane Danielle (some say that hurricanes follow the path of least resistance to the north). However, this storm needs to make a 90 degree turn at least to avoid a landfall in the United States. Right now, all models indicate that it will, in large part due to an approaching upper-level trough and cold front late this week. Hopefully, the storm won’t speed up, and the front won’t slow down, because this one will be a close call, first for North Carolina, then for the Delmarva peninsula, then even for Long Island, Massachussetts, and Maine. Even if Earl makes the big turn and avoids a direct landfall on the east coast, a hurricane this powerful will likely cause large storm surges to its north, in places like NC, SE VA, DE, and MD early on. Then, some storm surge is possible in the NE US (including NYC and Boston). But, it’s too early to tell exactly what will happen. A small change of 100 miles in either direction could change this into a major disaster, or just a news event. On the track, it will still be close enough to bring tropical storm force wind gusts possibly as far inland as Raleigh, NC and Williamsburg, VA. The NHC is considering hurricane watches for parts of the US later today. This is a storm to watch very closely as this could end up being the one we've feared for a while or absolutely nothing.

FIONA: This is the tropical storm coming up behind Earl, and this one is struggling due to marginally favorable upper air winds, dry air around the system, and upwelling from Danielle and Earl. NHC keeps Fiona as a tropical storm, and most models recurve this one into the open Atlantic before reaching the U.S. There are still a few outliers that have it threatening Florida, so we can't dismiss Fiona totally just yet.

GASTON? The wave behind Fiona in the East Atlantic looks pretty good; it has a great chance of becoming Tropical Storm Gaston later this week. More than likely, this one will recurve as well, but it is a little too early to be specific.

And, yet another large and well organized tropical wave will emerge off the coast of Africa tomorrow night. The wave train keeps rolling along. We have to wonder if this could be a September to remember in the tropical Atlantic basin.

Click here for Disney's 2010 hurricane policy.

[ElenitaB]

Oh, Chris... please say it isn't so... we're heading down to Florida on the AutoTrain on the 14th, and my worst nightmare is that our train is cancelled (either way) and I have to drive all the way (by myself). That would NOT be fun in the least, and would take far longer than antipated.

I guess I better start thinking through some serious Plan B scenarios, eh?

[Strmchsr]

I guess I better start thinking through some serious Plan B scenarios, eh?

Ellen, I guess you can't start thinking about Plan B as it's possible, don't worry too much just yet. That far out a lot of things can and will change. Some of the evening models are leaning more towards this being a SC/GA storm rather than FL, but it's still up in the air. I'll post updates here probably twice a day once this storm develops so that you can stay up to date.

[crazypoohbear]

Hi Chris,
I am driving down from MA.
Leaving August 9th in the early evening.
Arriving in orlando August 10th in the Evening.
Hows the weather looking for then?
We are driving back August 20th also.
Thanks for any help.

[Strmchsr]

Hi Chris,
I am driving down from MA.
Leaving August 9th in the early evening.
Arriving in orlando August 10th in the Evening.
Hows the weather looking for then?
We are driving back August 20th also.
Thanks for any help.

That's largely going to depend on what this system does. Right now it's look like it's either going to be an East Coast or Florida storm and arrive some time between August 10 and 12. Either way could definitely impact your drive down. The GFS also develops a second system around mid-month, also along the East Coast. That one is WAY too early to tell, but the first system will all depend on timing. It might not impact you at all if it's a little slower, but there's a definite possibility that it could alter your drive. So, just keep checking the tropical section here and I'll update as often as there is anything to talk about.

[ElenitaB]

Some of the evening models are leaning more towards this being a SC/GA storm rather than FL, but it's still up in the air. I'll post updates here probably twice a day once this storm develops so that you can stay up to date.

That's what worries me... if the AutoTrain route is affected in any way, they won't run the train.

Thanks, Chris, for the posts.

[mrmcgiv]

Any more current news on the formation of TS COlin and where he is headed? We arrive at disney 8/11 and I am a little worried. Is this common or does this storm have some serious potential to effect disney more than most storms? We will be in HHI from 8/7-8/11, we could have an effect there too, but I am more worried about disney! Thanks

[Strmchsr]

Any more current news on the formation of TS COlin and where he is headed? We arrive at disney 8/11 and I am a little worried.

You can see the update in the forecast above, but, to answer your question, I don't think you have anything to worry about. 1.) It's not going to be a major hurricane and 2.) There's only a slim chance right now that it'll impact Florida at all. So, relax!

[crazypoohbear]

So Chris,
Things are looking good for my drive down from MA to WDW August 9/10?
Thanks

[Strmchsr]

So Chris,
Things are looking good for my drive down from MA to WDW August 9/10?
Thanks

Definitely. No problems at all. Colin is going to stay well off shore.

[crazypoohbear]

Thanks Chris!
We are heading out in a few hours.
Keeping fingers crossed for an easy, safe drive.

[Strmchsr]

Thanks Chris!
We are heading out in a few hours.
Keeping fingers crossed for an easy, safe drive.

Be safe! I still don't see any issues for you. There's a weak disturbance crossing Florida today but it'll be gone by the time you get there.

[gollybass]

ah starting to worry about september 10th on, we are driving through from AZ so through Texas, Louisiana etc

[AntMagsMom]

A couple of the models have a very powerful hurricane moving into the Gulf around Sept 8. That's not cause for worry as that will be gone on the next model run, I'm sure, but it does continue to show the tropics should become very active shortly.


I hope you are right! We are supposed to be flying in on the 9th!!!!

[Strmchsr]

ah starting to worry about september 10th on, we are driving through from AZ so through Texas, Louisiana etc

I hope you are right! We are supposed to be flying in on the 9th!!!!

The morning models are still showing a tropical system moving into the Gulf around Sept 8, but moving more towards Mexico. We'll see what the afternoon models say when I update 1-2 pm CDT.

[Finiamh]

Ugh, Sept 3-10th here. If the storms miss FL then I still picture them leaving a trail of stormy weather for DW.

[Strmchsr]

Ugh, Sept 3-10th here. If the storms miss FL then I still picture them leaving a trail of stormy weather for DW.

Not usually. You have to be on the right side of a tropical storm to get impact. Generally if one passes you then you have sinking air left in its wake which actually reduces shower chances. Sept 3-10 is still voodooland right now, but for the moment it looks pretty dry. We'll see how it looks in a couple of days.

[Finiamh]

Ah, good to know! Thanks.

[Finiamh]

Soooo those couple models show it "headed" toward Florida by end of next week. Do they guess as to when it may "hit" Florida?

[Strmchsr]

Soooo those couple models show it "headed" toward Florida by end of next week. Do they guess as to when it may "hit" Florida?

There's some difference, but they range between Friday and Sunday of next week. I wouldn't put too much stock in that yet, though, as most models still show our potential Fiona curving back out to sea. I'm more worried about the potential Gaston than I am Fiona at the moment. Wouldn't it be just like Gaston to ruin everything. IF that one impacted Florida it would likely come Sept 6-8, but it's WAY too early to say where that storm might go, so don't get too uptight about it either. I only say I'm more concerned about it because it is a lower latitude and the wind conditions are becoming more favorable for US strike not because the models are actually indicating anything yet.

I know everyone gets all excited about "free" dining during September, but this, unfortunately, is the downside and why Disney had to try a promotion like "free" dining in the first place.