WDW Weather Forecast - August 31-Sept 16, 2011

[Strmchsr]

Since the forecast rarely changes in August, I'm only going to update this post on the weekdays until September unless there is something tropical brewing or a reason to update. I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Wednesday pm, August 31, 2011
Not much change over the next few days. Today through Monday temps will run 90-92 with pop up thunderstorms each day. Tuesday and Wednesday will be 91-93. Lows will be 75-75 each day. The is a possibility of tropical mischief this weekend popping up the Gulf, but right now the vast majority of the 12z models have a tropical storm moving in somewhere between Louisiana and Alabama, which would mean no impact for WDW. We'll have to see how it develops as some models to bring it into the Florida panhandle. If there is impact from this potential storm it wouldn't be heavy, just some rain and a little wind, and would occur Monday and or Tuesday.

Long range...Nothing really changes in voodooland either. Highs should stay in the low 90s with lows in the mid 70s and about a 1 in 3 chance of a pop up thunderstorm each day. The GFS 12z run shows another major hurricane heading towards the East Coast, but turning away from Florida at the last moment Sept 14-16. That is, of course, total voodoo, but it also shows we're a long way from being finished with this very active hurricane season.

Travel Impact
No issues this afternoon and I don't foresee any issues for tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
LEE? Confidence is high that the tropical wave in the Northwest Caribbean becomes Tropical Storm Lee at some point late this week or over the holiday weekend. How strong it gets, and where it goes will be the subject of great weeping and gnashing of teeth in coming days. Look at the models and you will see pure model madness; the 06Z GFS brings the system toward the big bend region of Florida late in the weekend, which would mean some impact for WDW. The 06Z ECMWF, however, takes it toward the coast of Texas. Now, when I'm talking "impact" I'm talking a little wind and rain. Nothing major. Gut feeling here says it could be an issue for the Central Gulf Coast, somewhere from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, by the middle of next week. There will be wild speculation, but nobody knows right now how this will all play out. There's a possibility for lots of rain by the first of next week or none at all. I'll keep you posted as things develop and I (and the NHC) get a better handle on it.

KATIA: The tropical storm currently packing 65 mph winds in the Central Atlantic is expected to become a major hurricane over the weekend north of Puerto Rico. Most global models recurve Katia over the open Atlantic, not impacting the East Coast of the U.S. However, those on the island of Bermuda will need to keep up with developments since the track could be close to them. A couple of models this morning turned Katria more west, towards the Caribbean. For now, those seem like outliers and not probable, but I'll keep a watch on it. The track is definitely not set in stone yet and, as I've mentioned before, major hurricanes sometimes do their own thing, regardless of steering currents.

Click here to see WDW's 2011 Hurricane Policy.

[Ms. Mode]

Thanks for the report Chris! My DH is already in panic mode though...I told him not to worry just yet!

I'm going to print your report for him. 11 Days to the magic!

[Strmchsr]

It's easy to panic when you have a vacation coming up and a tropical storm coming on the scene. Part of the joy of going to WDW August-October. Like I said in the forecast, though, way too much uncertainty with this storm right now to get too worried about it. I promise, I'll let you know when it's time to go ahead and panic.

[spoiledraf]

Arriving Saturday. And freinds are coming in Sunday, six adults, 14 kids. Most under 7. Staying in the room(s) will not be an option. Guess who is not smiling with this news.

[disneymad1998]

We are coming to the US from the UK on Wednesday and hope to be in a hot air balloon on the Sunday celebrating my 40th birthday - Come on american weather dont let me down!

[spoiledraf]

Any idea how this will affect inbound flights to MCO Saturday evening? Would they cancel any flights?

[Strmchsr]

Any idea how this will affect inbound flights to MCO Saturday evening? Would they cancel any flights?

It's all going to depend on timing and location of the storm. It's certainly possible for flights to be canceled. If the forecast stays as it looks this morning, I would say delays are probable, but not cancellations. We'll have to wait a couple of days and see how the storm develops.

[Strmchsr]

Any idea how this will affect inbound flights to MCO Saturday evening? Would they cancel any flights?

Looking at everything right now, I don't think you'll have any problems Saturday evening.

[spoiledraf]

Now I'm starting to smile again.

[olivegirl]

Thank You !!! We have 9 days till our Magic begins!!!! Crossing my fingers!

[iceicebritney]

Thanks for posting the weather info. We are 20+ days out and already panicking as well about the tropical storms. I'm fine, but my husband has been a mess. Lets just hope the storms steer clear of the sunshine state this year so that everyone can enjoy a little WDW sunshine and magic

[Strmchsr]

Lets just hope the storms steer clear of the sunshine state this year so that everyone can enjoy a little WDW sunshine and magic

Well, for the time being it seems they won't threaten the US coast. At least with the current pattern storms should stay south or east of Florida. We'll have to see how that pattern evolves over the next couple of weeks. IF it helps, tell your husband that WDW has been closed a grand total of 7 days in its entire 40 year history. And one of those was after Sept 11.

This whole tropical storm situation is a catch 22. I definitely don't want anyone's WDW vacation ruined, but at the same time these tropical storms actually are tremendously beneficial to Florida. Florida is under drought conditions because it hasn't been struck by a tropical system in over 3 years. They desperately need one!

[Flipjr]

Nervous here too. My family & I are flying in early sunday morn. Hopefully no delays/cancellations. Seems like it took forever to get to this point. No matter what, we are gonna make the most of it!

[Strmchsr]

Nervous here too. My family & I are flying in early sunday morn. Hopefully no delays/cancellations. Seems like it took forever to get to this point. No matter what, we are gonna make the most of it!

to Intercot!!!

No worries for Sunday. IF there are any issues it would be more likely about 8-10 days out. Way too early to tell, but if you have internet access while at WDW, keep a check in this thread and I'll keep you up to date. I hope you have a great trip.

[Flipjr]

Thanks Chris! Hopefully we will miss most of it. We are leaving Fl Aug 23rd.

[Disneymom4ever]

Just wanted to say thank you, Chris, for your daily weather reports! We are headed down there next week, and I've been checking your reports daily. I rely on them more than any other weather site. I know I've said thank you before, but I truly do appreciate, as I'm sure we all do, your daily reports. So thanks again!

[Strmchsr]

Thanks, Lisa! I'm glad to do it. It makes me happy to help others have a magical experience. Hope you have one next week!

[hubbyofadisneyholic]

We hit the road to WDW Tuesday night for an 11 day trip.
I know we will see some rain, but I just hope it isn't like the thunderstorm dumping a ton of rain on us right now here at home!!

Thanks for keeping us informed, Chris!

[Strmchsr]

WI know we will see some rain, but I just hope it isn't like the thunderstorm dumping a ton of rain on us right now here at home!!

Well, if it does rain, it'll be a tropical downpour, but, fortunately, those thunderstorms at WDW don't last a long time. Have a great trip!

[princessgirls]

Thanks so much Chris for your weather updates!! I am finally doing the single digit dance for our trip to Disney, and I am excited. Don't mind a thunderstorm a day, but a hurricane would put a cramp in my vacation!!

We was vacationing in Myrtle Beach in September of 1999 when the National Guard chased us out. What a nightmare....8 hours to go 60 miles. The lovely state of SC had no evacuation plan. They now have one.
We often joke my husband and I that when Jim Cantore from the weather channel comes to where you are...It's going to be BAD!!! We saw him on the way out of SC that year. The worst part of the whole Floyd nightmare was that that storm was so big, that we traveled 12 hours to New Jersey and there it was. Was one of the worst storms we saw in NJ in terms of flooding.
Thanks Again Chris!
Julie