WDW Weather Forecast - October 31-Nov 16, 2011

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss Sundays), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Monday pm, October 31, 2011
Happy Halloween!

I love it when the weather does what it's supposed to. Everything has played out as forecast. The rain moved through this morning, but is now pushing out to sea and the rest of the day will be clear with a high of 72. For tomorrow, look for a high 76-78 with a low 52-54. Wednesday will be 78-80 with a low 57-59. Thursday and Friday the highs will run 80-82 with lows 61-63. I don't see signs of any significant rain all the way through Monday. There is a slight chance of some spotty showers on Friday and again on Monday, but nothing really organized. The high Saturday should be 77-79, then 82-84 for Sunday and Monday with lows around 60.

Long range...Nov 7-16 looks like more of the same. Highs will stay low to mid 80s as a high pressure builds over Florida and shunts all the fronts away from Florida. If that high breaks down, things will be different, but right now the pattern looks pretty solid. No real chance of rain beyond a possible pop up brief shower.

Travel Impact
No major delays today or tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
While we are well past the climatological peak of the 2011 hurricane season, we are still technically IN that season! In early November, tropical cyclone formation is sporadic, but the few storms that have developed over the years seem to like the Caribbean’s warm water a little more than the more hostile environment near the Gulf or Western Atlantic. The main historic tracks of November storms usually steer storms away from the United States. For now, nothing is on the horizon and I definitely don't expect tropical formation this week.

Click here to see WDW's 2011 Hurricane Policy.

[peter's #1 fan]

we'll be arriving in Disney on Oct 5th -14th should we be worried about the rain that is showing up alot.

[Strmchsr]

we'll be arriving in Disney on Oct 5th -14th should we be worried about the rain that is showing up alot.

Not at all. I don't see significant rain any time soon. Any rain that does occur will be just pop up afternoon thunderstorms that last less than an hour. I think the majority of those will stay alon the coast, but one could drift inland. Still, nothing to worry about. If one does come over, just throw on a poncho, or find a place to rest for a few minutes and it'll be over soon.

[Jennifer_and_Chris]

No big heat wave the week of the 17th?

The last 2 years we have gone the same week and had freakishly hot days (mid 90's). So, is it safe to say low to mid 80's during our visit? I know it's voodoo land but, I'm trying to decide packing activities this weekend!

Thanks for the daily updates.... I'm getting so excited.

[JenniferS.]

We are arriving on Oct. 27th til Nov. 4th. Hoping for low 80's and 60's at night. Not sure how to pack. I'll be checking back when you extend to that time frame!

[Strmchsr]

The last 2 years we have gone the same week and had freakishly hot days (mid 90's). So, is it safe to say low to mid 80's during our visit?

As you said, it's voodoo, but right now I don't see any big heat waves coming in October. I think you're safe to plan on 80s, though upper 80s aren't out of the question.

We are arriving on Oct. 27th til Nov. 4th. Hoping for low 80's and 60's at night. Not sure how to pack. I'll be checking back when you extend to that time frame!

The models go out 16 days, so that will give you an idea of when I'll get to your timeframe. 5 more days for you.

[LittleRoosMommy]

We're leaving in the morning! My DH has been watching the local Orlando news and they are calling for up to 6-8 inches of rain this weekend!? I just want to be prepared.... Do you really think there could be that much rain this weekend?? I really hope not! I'm so done with rain!!! We have had a total of 5 days of sunshine since the beginning of Sept! I just really want to see the sun!!!

[Strmchsr]

April, I think that's possible in some areas, but not across the board. There will definitely be some periods of heavy rain with this system, especially tomorrow. I think on Sunday it'll be one batch that moves through. Keep in mind, though, with a tropical system 2" of rain can easily fall in an hour. Even 6-8" of rain doesn't mean an all day thing in the tropics. Most of your vacation, though, should be rain free. Just have to get through tomorrow and Sunday. I hope you have a good trip!

[LittleRoosMommy]

Thanks!! I've got the ponchos ready to go!! At least I will be in WDW and not sitting in MD in the rain!! Just hoping that it's all dried out by Mon for MNSSHP!! Thanks for the updates!

[Strmchsr]

Thanks!! I've got the ponchos ready to go!! At least I will be in WDW and not sitting in MD in the rain!! Just hoping that it's all dried out by Mon for MNSSHP!! Thanks for the updates!

I think you should definitely be fine by Monday night's party. And keep in mind what I mentioned in the forecast - there are a couple of models that limit the rain completely to tomorrow. I think it'll be both days, but at least there's a chance.

[buddie]

Forecasts are useless here in central Florida.
Don't plan anything based on them.
At some point it will rain. It will be sunny. It will be warm.

[Disney Hungarian]

Forecasts are useless here in central Florida.
Don't plan anything based on them.
At some point it will rain. It will be sunny. It will be warm.

I disagree.
Chris does a great service to INTERCOT by offering his forecasts. I owe him for last December. I followed his forecast and knew in advance that I would experience rather unseasonably cold weather last year. One of those days the high was only 36 and the wind-chill was below freezing the whole day. Had it not been for Chris, I would not have taken hats, gloves, scarves and ear-muffs. Thank you again, Chris!

[Jared]

Chris, please tell that tropical system for Oct. 22 and 23 to cool it. That's when I arrive!

[Strmchsr]

Chris, please tell that tropical system for Oct. 22 and 23 to cool it. That's when I arrive!

I'll be sure to send the Boss a memo about that.

[Jared]

I'll be sure to send the Boss a memo about that.

Yes, please. I see nothing but sunshine in the Orlando forecast -- until I arrive.

[Jared]

Seems like you're doing a pretty good job at keeping the tropical storm at bay so far, Chris. Doesn't look like it'll be too big of a threat!

[Strmchsr]

Seems like you're doing a pretty good job at keeping the tropical storm at bay so far, Chris. Doesn't look like it'll be too big of a threat!

Thanks! I wish I could claim credit. Seriously, though, even though the majority of the models are getting the Caribbean all stirred up in a few days, most models are also showing a pretty decent trough developing over the East Coast for the latter half of October which should keep those systems pushed to the south. Nothing is certain, but right now it looks like the greater threat would be to South Florida rather than the Orlando area.

[Dsnygirl]

Chris, it looks like things are trending towards cooler temps the end of the month... is that what you're expecting to follow through? We're there the 27-31, and although 70's is great, we're hoping for a small bit of swimming weather!

[Strmchsr]

Blythe, I think it's about a 50-50 chance of the weather actually ending up cooler. Certainly cooler weather is coming at the end of October. It all depends on how far south the trough comes and that's impossible to say right now.

[Kisobel]

i know i will enjoy being there no matter what the weather. but i really dont want highs in the 60's. crosssing my fingers and toes and wishing real hard.

kate