WDW Weather Forecast - July 31-August 16, 2012

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss Sundays), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Tuesday pm, July 31, 2012
The high today should reach 91-92 with some scattered afternoon thunderstorms likely. Tomorrow the high should be around 90 with afternoon thunderstorms, again, being very likely. Thursday through Saturday highs will run 91-93 with scattered afternoon thunderstorms, then 92-94 on Sunday through Tuesday with the possibility of sea breeze thunderstorms continuing. Keep in mind those are possible almost every day in the summer. They can be very intense, but they generally don't last long. When one approaches, your best bet is to go inside until it passes.

Long range...Aug 8-16 doesn't show a lot of change. Highs should generally continue to run in the low to mid 90s (mostly low) with the possibility of afternoon thunderstorms being about 40%. There is some indication of an uptick in tropical activity by mid-August, which is to be expected as that begins the peak part of the season, but no specific threats for Florida right now.

Travel Impact
At 12:15 pm CDT, DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia all have delays from thunderstorms. For tomorrow, no big problems, but thunderstorms will fire all along the East Coast, so any of those states could potentially have delays.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
A weak area of low pressure (Invest 99L) was located in the South Atlantic and while it is not expected to produce a tropical storm in the next 48 hours, conditions appear favorable for some strengthening of the system over the next few days. Right now it appears the most likely track would be through the southern Caribbean with no threat to Florida, but I'll keep an eye on it.

[special ed teacher]

We are hotter in Chicago. It has been near 100 for longer then a week.

[Strmchsr]

We are hotter in Chicago. It has been near 100 for longer then a week.

Yep. The heat bubble is staying mostly over the midwest this year with occasional intrusions towards the east and southeast. However, all the recent moisture from the rains of TS Debby is helping keep the temps in Orlando down a bit. Humidity is awful, though. I've always felt if I can't be at WDW it should at least have the decency to be hot and miserable while I'm not there. It would at least make me feel a little better

[Belster]

Are we expecting a hot, wet September. I know it is Voodoo but any trends happening that you can use to predict on? lol

We travel from 9/7-9/16. :0)

[Strmchsr]

Best guess right now (and only a guess) is that it'll be a pretty typical September. Don't see a pattern setting up for it to be especially hot, but it will still be pretty warm.

[special ed teacher]

It's still hot in Chicago. 100 again today.

[Strmchsr]

It's still hot in Chicago. 100 again today.

Yeah, there was some short relief, but it looks like that ridge is going to stay for a while. You're dealing with what the southeast did in 2007. Once a drought takes hold it is very, very difficult to break and dry ground heats up a lot more than moist.

[j2k]

Watching the tropics for next week!!!

[special ed teacher]

What's the weather for the 2nd-8th.

[Strmchsr]

Watching the tropics for next week!!!

What's the weather for the 2nd-8th.

Sorry everyone. Had an unexpected death in my church this weekend. Been going non-stop trying to help the family. I'll have a new weather update later this morning. I can say, in general, things haven't changed. Still looks pretty much like what I've already posted, but I'll have all the details up by noon CDT.

[Drachengeist]

While all the specifics are really great, Most of the current weather boils down to a litteral reading of the thread topic line.


Sticky: WDW Weather Forecast - July 31-August 16, 2012

Now thats what I call truth in advertizing!

[Strmchsr]

lol, yeah, that about sums it up.