WDW Weather Forecast - September 30-Oct 16, 2013

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Monday pm, September 30, 2013
Today looks pretty nice with a high 87-88. Tomorrow should be 86-88 with a 40% chance of a brief shower. Wednesday looks 87-89 with a 20% chance of a shower. We have some model madness going on after Wednesday. The 06z models were pretty consistently showing a tropical wave moving near Florida and flooding the peninsula with tropical moisture bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday through Sunday. However, the 12z models have shifted the wave further west and suddenly the weekend looks much drier (which makes me happy since I'm planning on going to MNSSHP Sunday night!) Thursday still looks like there's a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms with a high 85-87. Friday through Sunday there's only a 35% chance of hit and miss showers, no consistent rain, with highs running 87-89. Monday should be 86-88 with a 40% chance of rain moving in during the afternoon with a front.

Long range...Oct 8-16 doesn't show any major rain events. Just hit and miss afternoon thunderstorms. Highs look to mostly stay in the mid 80s with some low 80s possible.

Travel Impact
No major problems today or tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence and other issues that sometimes cause anxiety when flying. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
Tropical Storm Jerry is now on the board over the Central Atlantic; it will basically loop around this week and will remain far from land.

A wave in the Caribbean is being watched; this one, most likely, will move across the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche this week. If something does form there, and that's looking less likely, odds are high it moves into Mexico, south of Brownsville, Texas, like other systems this season. Looks like it won't be an issue for WDW like we had feared this weekend. Even without a potential tropical storm or depression WDW may face some very heavy rain towards the end of the week.

[pianobabe]

Thanks for sharing your knowledge with us all. Happy Anniversary!

[badkitty]

Wow! Eight years! Thanks for all the weather reports. I don't leave for a trip without reading your posts first. Happy Anniversary.

[MyDisneyworld]

Thanks for enjoying your hobbie here and helping us out with the weather for our vacations.
I noticed everyday it says a chance of thunderstorms, are those the quick ones where it lasts for 15 mins?

[VWL Mom]

Happy Anniversary Chris

[2MuchWDFun]

Congrats on 8 years!
I always check your weather reports and prognosications a few weeks before our next WDW vacation!

[disneymom15]

Always love reading your reports, we leave in 1 week and your posts are a daily "must read". Thanks and congrats on 8 years!!

[Strmchsr]

I noticed everyday it says a chance of thunderstorms, are those the quick ones where it lasts for 15 mins?

For the most part, yes. Probably a little longer than 15 min, but less than an hour.

[BiloxiMom]

Chris, I know it's way voodoo land, but what do you think about the last week of Sept./first week of Oct.? I know it's going to be warm, but what about humidity? Is it going to be miserable? 100 degree heat index isn't going to be fun with my mature parents.

[Strmchsr]

Chris, I know it's way voodoo land, but what do you think about the last week of Sept./first week of Oct.? I know it's going to be warm, but what about humidity? Is it going to be miserable? 100 degree heat index isn't going to be fun with my mature parents.

The reliable models only go out 16 days, so I have no decent data to look at beyond Sept 20. We're arriving Oct 4, so I'm a little curious about that time frame as well. The "big picture" pattern looks like humidity should be down by the first of October with highs in the low to mid 80s. October is generally a drier month when humidity levels really drop. We're already seeing some cooler air up north so I'm guessing that will begin dropping south by Oct 1. Don't look for a cold wave, but my gut right now is that it won't be too bad for you.

[BiloxiMom]

That sounds awesome! I can handle hot... I do live in MS...but being out all day in that much humidity, I'd rather not. Have fun on your trip! We head out on the 4th.

[RALPH]

The links on turbulance dont work. i hate flying.

[Strmchsr]

The links on turbulance dont work. i hate flying.

I had just checked those links about a month ago. Sorry they went down. I found the new site and fixed the links. They work now.

[steamboat willy]

8 days from today, I'm gonna get OUR forecast. Leave in 9 days!

[Strmchsr]

8 days from today, I'm gonna get OUR forecast. Leave in 9 days!

I'm right there with you! We arrive Oct 4 so I'm anxious to get out of voodooland, too.

[Hammer]

I'm right there with you! We arrive Oct 4 so I'm anxious to get out of voodooland, too.

Wow, there is going to be a bunch of us there around that time. I'll be there October 6th-11th. Anxiously waiting for us to get out of voodooland to start my packing list...

[Strmchsr]

Awesome! We'll have to make sure we meet up at some point during the week, Christine.

[steamboat willy]

We to will be there during those dates. Has a meet date/time/place been decided!

[Strmchsr]

We to will be there during those dates. Has a meet date/time/place been decided!

Not that I know of, but it sounds like we need to arrange one!

[2MuchWDFun]

Thanks for the up-to-the-minute weather updates...we'll be flying out from PA tomorrow!
The weather looks like it'll be fantastic for our trip! We'll be leaving Orlando when you arrive--hope you have a wonderful time!!
I think I just used up my exclamation point quota!!!