WDW Weather Forecast - October 30-Nov 15, 2014

**Strmchsr** · 10-01-2014, 02:24 PM

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Thursday pm, October 30, 2014
The high is going to top out 83-84 today. Some scattered showers are possible later this afternoon or evening, but anything that does move over should be fairly light and brief. No other significant rain chances through Thursday. A couple of brief scattered showers might roll through on Saturday as the back edge of the short wave rotates past, but nothing else. The real issue will be the temps. Look for a high 76-78 tomorrow then 63-65 on Saturday with a fairly brisk north wind. Don't forget to set your clocks back an hour before going to bed Saturday night. Sunday will start off at around 40-42 then warm to 65-67. Monday's low will be 50 with a high 72-74. Tuesday should be 76-78, then 81-83 for Wednesday and Thursday.

Long range...Nov 7 could see some showers and thunderstorms as the next front moves in. Nov 8 will be near 70, then back to around 80 for Nov 9-13 before the next front comes in. Nov 14-15 will see highs in the upper 60s.

Travel Issues

No major issues for the next few days.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence and other issues that sometimes cause anxiety when flying. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics

The disturbance in the Atlantic is fizzling out and everything else is quiet. No worries.

**Janmac** · 10-04-2014, 09:12 AM

Chris, what's the status on El Nino? Is it strengthening any?

Jan

**Strmchsr** · 10-04-2014, 06:09 PM

Originally Posted by Janmac

Chris, what's the status on El Nino? Is it strengthening any?

Jan

Hey, Jan. It was looking during the summer like the El Nino would not happen, but in the last month a nice Kelvin Wave has drug up some warm water so it now appears we'll have a weak to potentially low-end moderate El Nino this winter. By spring it'll fade again. Still not 100% (more in the 60-70% range) it'll happen, but that's the outlook for the moment.

**Janmac** · 10-04-2014, 11:35 PM

Thanks, Chris. I was looking at the September weather summary and thinking what an odd summer we've had here in central Missouri, which led me to wonder about El Nino. I certainly don't mind a weak El Nino for the winter.

Jan

**JabberJaws** · 10-05-2014, 05:00 PM

Alrighty, so far so good. Be there Oct. 9 - 14 so keeping fingers crossed that this forecast holds up! (and that if any hurricane does come through it waits until the 16th or later)

**princessgirls** · 10-06-2014, 02:58 PM

Chris,

It seems like it is starting to cool off a bit in Florida.
I have heard from a few who went August and September that it was brutal hot.
We enjoyed a very mild summer here in the Northeast. Plenty of sun, and low humidity, and it was very nice! We are going in November, so I'm hoping for mid 70's by then!
Julie

**Mitzie** · 10-06-2014, 03:04 PM

I was totally shocked to see Chris forecasting out till the 22nd..we arrive on the 23rd. Then he uses the "H" word ...uggg. None of that talk now!

**Strmchsr** · 10-06-2014, 03:33 PM

Originally Posted by princessgirls

It seems like it is starting to cool off a bit in Florida. I have heard from a few who went August and September that it was brutal hot.

It was actually a fairly normal summer for us in Florida, though if you're not used to Florida in the summer it can definitely seem brutally hot! I think you have a decent shot and seeing highs in the 70s by November. Low 80s at the most.

Originally Posted by Mitzie

I was totally shocked to see Chris forecasting out till the 22nd..we arrive on the 23rd. Then he uses the "H" word ...uggg. None of that talk now!

Keep in mind it's voodooland. No worrying about any of that just yet.

**Figment104** · 10-07-2014, 09:57 AM

Strmchsr you just made my day

with that bit about the hurricane staying away (though I do realize this is still voodooland. With how everything else has been going for our trip this year that would have just been the cherry on the top, so I'm glad to see it outta there! Thanks so much for these awesome forecasts that you do!

**BrerGnat** · 10-10-2014, 09:57 AM

Uh oh, just saw that a tropical disturbance has formed in the Caribbean? Is this what the models were seeing? We will be there on the 16th for 5 days. Hope bad weather stays away!

**Strmchsr** · 10-10-2014, 08:08 PM

Natalie, no worries. The system that formed today will stay out to sea and I still don't see a legitimate threat to land right now from the tropics.

**BrerGnat** · 10-10-2014, 08:59 PM

Originally Posted by Strmchsr

Natalie, no worries. The system that formed today will stay out to see and I still don't see a legitimate threat to land right now from the tropics.

Whew! Thanks!

**Mitzie** · 10-13-2014, 06:55 PM

Chris..We fly down on Oct. 23rd and fly home on the 28th. You latest post just gave me about 100 more gray hairs and twice as many wrinkles. I am praying very hard that this does not come to fruition. We are taking my best friend and it is her first trip to WDW and I so wanted it to be good for her.

**Strmchsr** · 10-13-2014, 07:27 PM

Originally Posted by Mitzie

Chris..We fly down on Oct. 23rd and fly home on the 28th. You latest post just gave me about 100 more gray hairs and twice as many wrinkles. I am praying very hard that this does not come to fruition.

Don't sweat it right now. The long range models have been crying wolf for the last 3 months and it hasn't happened yet. It could happen. The Caribbean and Gulf are ripe for something to happen, but honestly until something actually forms you have nothing to be concerned about. I expect the long range models will continue forming storms out in voodooland for the next couple of weeks because of the MJO. I expect there will be storms forming but we have no way of knowing where they'll go. But I'll keep you posted every step of the way.

**Mitzie** · 10-14-2014, 08:09 PM

Chris I am not feeling much better yet

. I am going to just keep praying up here.

**special ed teacher** · 10-14-2014, 09:02 PM

We are to travel on the 24th😁

**Mitzie** · 10-15-2014, 07:23 PM

Ok let`s take a reading on my Disney trip stress meter....nope Chris still feeling the stress from the dreaded "H" word. Still praying.

**Strmchsr** · 10-15-2014, 08:26 PM

Originally Posted by Mitzie

Ok let`s take a reading on my Disney trip stress meter....nope Chris still feeling the stress from the dreaded "H" word. Still praying.

I still honestly don't think anything will happen. However, we should know for sure by this weekend. If I see any disturbance start to kick up in the southern Gulf I'll let you know right away.