WDW Weather Forecast - November 30-Dec 16, 2015

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Monday pm, November 30, 2015
The high today will be around 80 under partly cloudy skies. No real rain threat tomorrow or Wednesday. Just a slight chance of a passing shower. The high tomorrow will be 80-82, then 81-83 for Wednesday. We're still looking at a front pushing through later in the week. It's the timing that is still up in the air. Today's model runs are a little faster and have rain chances rising for Thursday with a high around 75. Showers and storms look likely when the front moves through. Friday could still have spotty showers around but no significant rain with a high still around 75. After Friday we have a lot of model madness so take this with a big grain of salt but today it looks like the remnants of the front will produce a couple of impulses that will bring showers and thunderstorms. First on Saturday then on Monday. Neither day will be a complete rainout but some heavy rain is possible. Sunday should be mostly dry with only isolated showers. Saturday and Sunday's highs will be 71-73. Monday should be near 80 before that round of thunderstorms rolls through.

Long range...Dec 8-12 looks dry with highs in the mid to upper 70s for Dec 8-10, low 80s on Dec 11 and possibly mid 80s on Dec 12 as another strong front approaches. Dec 13 looks pretty stormy. Dec 14-15 should be dry with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s then another round of storms arrives on Dec 16. Now, any of you who read this often know I always say to ignore voodooland. That hasn't changed. But, on an overall pattern view what the models are showing is about what to expect this winter. With a strong El Nino still in place the south generally experiences cooler and wetter than normal conditions. You can expect rain every 3-4 days and that won't change for the most part until February or March. It won't happen every week, but you do need to expect an active pattern over the

Travel Issues
No major issues today or tomorrow but winter weather is causing some delays and cancellations at airports in OK, NE, SD, ND, and MN.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence and other issues that sometimes cause anxiety when flying. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
The season ends today. It was more active than anticipated but fortunately no major issues thanks to the strong El Nino. The final totals:

Tropical Depressions: 12
Tropical Storms: 11
Hurricanes: 4
Major Hurricanes: 2

Florida has now seen over 10 years without ANY hurricane striking its coast. And, the U.S. has gone 10 years without a major hurricane strike. The last was Wilma, which made landfall on Oct. 24, 2005. Next year may be different with the shift in upper air pattern but hopefully not. We'll keep hoping every year for one more quiet season.

[SurferStitch]

Oh man!!!! I hope your voodooland 11/30-12/3 forecast stays the same for our trip!!

[Pally]

We have friends leaving on Saturday for their very first family Disney trip. Hopefully, Sunday will be the only "miserable" day. They prefer cooler days so that is good in their eyes.

[Strmchsr]

It's looking like Sunday is only day that will be rainy and even that should give part of the day with no rain. Just tell them to grab a poncho and keep moving. Some of my best days at WDW were rainy days. Tends to keep the crowds lower, especially during a more crowded week like Thanksgiving.

[SurferStitch]

Wow... forecasts are all over the place for next week. I'm really hoping yours is wrong!! It's the worst of the 4 I've seen!! LOL!

We've never had a 10 or 11 day trip where 90% of the days are cloudy and gray. That'll be new for us. Our last trip in December of '13 was warm, sunny.... and warm!!! I think we had one day of clouds that lasted about 4 hours or so. We actually welcomed them!

Oh well, at least we'll be at WDW, and not at work. I'll just keep telling myself that.

[Strmchsr]

No worries. I was tied up over the weekend and didn't get to update so I've just posted with the latest model data. Of course, always keep in mind anything beyond 7 days is worthless. This time of year the models change from run to run.