Each day in August, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Tuesday pm, August 31, 2010
Today turned out not too bad with a high of 90. With sinking air behind Earl, it looks like things should be pretty dry with only a very small chance of an isolated shower through Friday. Highs will run 91-93. Saturday and Sunday a little humidity returns so shower chances will be slightly better. Highs will be 92-94. Monday and Tuesday there's a good chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms firing up. The chance of any one place getting wet will be 1 in 3. Highs will be 90-92. Lows are going to run 73-75 all week.

Long range...September 8-14 will stay in the low 90s for highs and low to mid 70s for lows. Signs are pointing towards a nice front pushing south by mid-month which could mean some rain and thunderstorms along with cooler temps around Sept 15. Currently most models have the storm fizzling as it hits Florida, so it wouldn't be a major rain event, nor cool down. Just a few scattered showers and highs dropping to the mid 80s for Sept 15-16.

Travel Impact
No major delays today or tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
Hurricane Earl has maximum sustained winds of 135 mph this afternoon. It has weakened a little due to an eyewall replacement cycle (notice no clear hurricane eye), but is expected to intensify some more over the next 2 days. After that, as it starts to encounter some wind shear near the US East Coast, it should weaken again, but still be at least a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph.
The track of Earl is the big question, since it will almost certainly be an intese hurricane as it approaches the east coast. Earl is trying to turn NW today, into a weakness in the upper-level ridge left by Hurricane Danielle (some say that hurricanes follow the path of least resistance to the north). However, this storm needs to make a 90 degree turn at least to avoid a landfall in the United States. Right now, all models indicate that it will, in large part due to an approaching upper-level trough and cold front late this week. Hopefully, the storm won’t speed up, and the front won’t slow down, because this one will be a close call, first for North Carolina, then for the Delmarva peninsula, then even for Long Island, Massachussetts, and Maine. Even if Earl makes the big turn and avoids a direct landfall on the east coast, a hurricane this powerful will likely cause large storm surges to its north, in places like NC, SE VA, DE, and MD early on. Then, some storm surge is possible in the NE US (including NYC and Boston). But, it’s too early to tell exactly what will happen. A small change of 100 miles in either direction could change this into a major disaster, or just a news event. On the track, it will still be close enough to bring tropical storm force wind gusts possibly as far inland as Raleigh, NC and Williamsburg, VA. The NHC is considering hurricane watches for parts of the US later today. This is a storm to watch very closely as this could end up being the one we've feared for a while or absolutely nothing.

FIONA: This is the tropical storm coming up behind Earl, and this one is struggling due to marginally favorable upper air winds, dry air around the system, and upwelling from Danielle and Earl. NHC keeps Fiona as a tropical storm, and most models recurve this one into the open Atlantic before reaching the U.S. There are still a few outliers that have it threatening Florida, so we can't dismiss Fiona totally just yet.

GASTON? The wave behind Fiona in the East Atlantic looks pretty good; it has a great chance of becoming Tropical Storm Gaston later this week. More than likely, this one will recurve as well, but it is a little too early to be specific.

And, yet another large and well organized tropical wave will emerge off the coast of Africa tomorrow night. The wave train keeps rolling along. We have to wonder if this could be a September to remember in the tropical Atlantic basin.

Click here for Disney's 2010 hurricane policy.