Central Florida's woes may grow worse

A hit from Hurricane Frances could lead to flooding, more outages and flying debris left by Charley.

By Kevin Spear and Joe Newman
Sentinel Staff Writers

September 1, 2004, 8:39 AM EDT

A menacing Hurricane Frances crept closer Wednesday to the southeastern United States, with 140-mph winds and forecasters saying Florida -- still cleaning up after Charley -- was at risk for another hurricane strike as soon as Friday.

As Frances closed on the Bahamas, it was expected to fluctuate in intensity and could become a Category 5 storm with top sustained winds of 156 mph or higher, said Jamie Rhome, a meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The storm could hit anywhere from South Florida to South Carolina as early as late Friday.

"This still is a huge threat to the southeast U.S. coast," Rhome said. "All indications for now is that Florida is the prime candidate."

At 8 a.m. EDT, the Category 4 Frances was centered about 130 miles east of Grand Turk Island southeast of the Bahamas and 1,260 miles east-southeast of Palm Beach.

Frances was forecast to plow through the Bahamas late Wednesday or Thursday before hitting the U.S. mainland. Millions of coastal residents should be on guard. Hurricane center forecaster Jack Beven said evacuation orders were likely to be issued with warnings and watches late Wednesday.

"There's a tremendous amount of uncertainty," Rhome said. "I don't think anyone's off the hook yet."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If Hurricane Frances strikes Central Florida late this week, it will find a region softened up by Hurricane Charley and poorly able to defend against flooding, widespread power outages and storm-swept debris.

Frances is keeping everyone guessing. Late Tuesday, the five-day forecast, which has an average error of more than 370 miles, had Frances making landfall Saturday north of Cape Canaveral.

Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer called on city residents Tuesday to join with hundreds of hired crews to redouble the effort to cart away debris from trees knocked down Aug. 13 by Hurricane Charley.

"Assist your neighbors, assist the city," said Dyer in a news conference, imploring residents to lend their own pickups to the task. "It was community spirit that got us through Hurricane Charley. We will need that same community spirit to get us through Hurricane Frances."

With four days until its anticipated landfall, officials cautioned that it is too early to predict landfall for the hurricane, which was reported Tuesday evening as a Category 4 storm, with sustained winds of 140 mph.

The storm brushed Puerto Rico on Tuesday with pounding surf, blustery winds and lightning, knocking out electricity to about 17,000 people in the territory as it headed toward the Bahamas. No injuries were reported.

Forecasters said that if a ridge to the north weakens in time, it could steer Frances farther north.

"If that ridge stays in place, this is a Florida hurricane," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center west of Miami.

State officials worried about finding hotel rooms and shelters for people who may need to evacuate. Many hotel rooms in the southern half of the state are occupied by people Charley left homeless and emergency workers from other states.

In Central Florida, hundreds of hotels began emergency planning in case Frances affects the region, either directly with a hit or indirectly with an influx of coastal refugees.

Residents fresh from the experience of Hurricane Charley crowded stores Tuesday to get a jump on what might be yet another disaster.

All the usual pre-storm staples -- from candles to batteries, plywood to bottled water, charcoal to plastic sheeting -- started disappearing from shelves.

Gasoline generators for home electricity proved the most elusive product in a region where more than half a million people recently suffered through at least four days without lights and electricity, and thousands went a week or more without power.

Matthew Hill, 31, a chiropractor, loaded plywood into his dad's minivan at The Home Depot in Daytona Beach, having endured a long wait at the checkout.

"It was like an Epcot line," Hill said.

The hurricane threat will trigger many responses today -- from Brevard County's opening its emergency-operations center to school officials' huddling to decide whether to cancel classes to Progress Energy Florida's activating its emergency center in Lake Mary.

Frances' timing couldn't be worse for the thousands of homeowners still repairing damage from Charley.

The biggest concern is for the homes with roofs still not repaired. More rain means more damage to those homes, Osceola building official Jeff DeBoer said.

"If it's only covered with a tarp -- that's not going to do anything," DeBoer said.

The Seminole County school district wasn't taking chances with its office building in Sanford. The roof was destroyed by Hurricane Charley, inflicting $2.5 million damage. Officials approved an emergency contract for a new roof, and workers are rushing to complete the job by Friday.

The piles of storm debris littering many Central Florida neighborhoods are also raising fears.

Volusia County officials suggested that residents burn debris in the next few days. In Orange County, 1,100 people are involved in debris cleanup, County Administrator Ajit Lalchandani said.

"The resources are in place, but the problem cannot be solved in three days," he said.

Orlando officials began redeploying cleanup crews Tuesday to target the piles that posed the greatest threat to residents.

"What I'm looking for are the midsized debris piles that are definitely going to get windborne," said Alan Oyler, Orlando's deputy public-works director. "I'm not worried about the tree stumps and the logs."

Besides worrying about flying debris, officials are concerned about leaves and branches clogging drains, Lalchandani said.

"The stuff that's not picked up, if a lot of rain falls, its definitely going to get in drains and gutters and cause a whole new set of problems," he said. "It will aggravate an already bad situation."

There were eight named storms in August, setting a record for the most in that month and tying the all-time monthly record set in September 2002. The month, with about 14.5 inches of rain in Orlando, also was the third-wettest August on record, according to the National Weather Service.

That could cause flooding problems.

"We'll have more concern about local flooding if [Frances] drops 3 or 4 inches of rain," said Hank Largin, Orlando-area spokesman for the St. Johns River Water Management District.

The region's electric utilities, exhausted by Hurricane Charley, are gearing up for a possible repeat performance.

"We know what we need to do," Florida Power & Light spokesman Bill Swank said in Miami. "We've experienced it in real life."

Progress Energy, along with other regional utilities, put out-of-town utilities on notice that their crews may be needed.

Utilities also fear that countless trees harbor broken limbs, waiting for a gust of wind to dislodge them and fall on a power line.

The Orlando Utilities Commission has 17 crews trimming "hangers."

Kissimmee Utility Authority crews are braced for outages. In rebuilding its grid, the authority has not yet restored redundant power lines that would allow electricity to detour around short circuits, minimizing the number of homes that lose power.

"When a line gets knocked out, power to the whole neighborhood is knocked out," KUA spokesman Chris Gent said.