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Hey Chris,
I'm going next week so stay on the Level with me Brother and keep those reports in good shape.
Jeff
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Originally Posted by Scar
Hey Chris,
I'm going next week so stay on the Level with me Brother and keep those reports in good shape.
Hey, Brother you know I'll pull every string I have for you.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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I am sooooo worried about the weather next week!! I am worried that we are going to encounter some big thunderstorms???
I am used to the daily show and then pass through...please say that is all it is!
Off-Site several times between 1983-1992
1993-Grand Floridian
1996-Poly
1998-Poly
2001-Poly
2004-Pop
2008-Pop "First MNSSHP"
2009-Coronado Springs" MNSSHP"
2010-Pop Century "MNSSHP"
Next Trip 10/01/2011 MNSSHP !
"Now approaching carousal of progress."
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Originally Posted by Belster
I am sooooo worried about the weather next week!! I am worried that we are going to encounter some big thunderstorms???
I am used to the daily show and then pass through...please say that is all it is!
I'm with you, esp. since we're going to MNSSHP the same night!! Here's to hoping our night isn't a rainy one...
I'm sure hoping those models change and push those fronts back...
Blythe
Past trips -
3x offsite,May 06 CBR,Oct 07 I'cot 10,Dec 08 CBR,Jan 09 ASMu,Oct 09 CBR/AKL,Jan 11 AsMu,Aug 11 CBR, Oct 11 AKL,Oct 12 I'cot 15,Aug 13 CBR,Aug '14 mini AKL trip
Next -
May '17 DL OR June '17 CBR
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Originally Posted by Belster
I am used to the daily show and then pass through...please say that is all it is!
Don't be too concerned right now. The models really are all over the place, changing every run. Honestly, anything beyond 5 days (instead of my usual 7) is a guess right now. Sometimes the models show a big front coming down at the end of next week, but then the next run it shows the front fizzling out before getting to Orlando. We'll just have to watch for some consistency. Early in the week is also a toss up. The cold front coming through this weekend that pushes back north on Monday and Tuesday I don't think will cause all day rains. Off and on thunderstorms are possible, though. It just depends on how far north that front backs up. Some models show it staying south of Orlando, some don't and I'm trying to sift through them all to see which ones have the best handle on the situation. I'll keep you updated!
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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Originally Posted by Strmchsr
...I'm trying to sift through them all to see which ones have the best handle on the situation. I'll keep you updated!
Chris, you're awesome... thank you so much for keeping us up-to-date on stuff, even when the models are whacky. Here's to hoping they settle down and settle in to something a little more easy to predict!!
(btw, I now have this thread as a bookmark on my Blackberry so I can check it while we're there... I've come to trust you more than what I hear on TV! )
Blythe
Past trips -
3x offsite,May 06 CBR,Oct 07 I'cot 10,Dec 08 CBR,Jan 09 ASMu,Oct 09 CBR/AKL,Jan 11 AsMu,Aug 11 CBR, Oct 11 AKL,Oct 12 I'cot 15,Aug 13 CBR,Aug '14 mini AKL trip
Next -
May '17 DL OR June '17 CBR
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Originally Posted by Dsnygirl
(btw, I now have this thread as a bookmark on my Blackberry so I can check it while we're there... I've come to trust you more than what I hear on TV! )
Thanks Blythe! Do be aware, though, that I'll be closing this thread and opening the November thread on Nov 1. You'll have to change your bookmark then.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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Originally Posted by Strmchsr
Thanks Blythe! Do be aware, though, that I'll be closing this thread and opening the November thread on Nov 1. You'll have to change your bookmark then.
No worries.... all we're doing that day is flying home.
Blythe
Past trips -
3x offsite,May 06 CBR,Oct 07 I'cot 10,Dec 08 CBR,Jan 09 ASMu,Oct 09 CBR/AKL,Jan 11 AsMu,Aug 11 CBR, Oct 11 AKL,Oct 12 I'cot 15,Aug 13 CBR,Aug '14 mini AKL trip
Next -
May '17 DL OR June '17 CBR
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Originally Posted by Strmchsr
Sometimes the models show a big front coming down at the end of next week, ..
Chris you're gettin' me excited. I wasn't expecting that at WDW.
Jeff
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Originally Posted by Scar
Chris you're gettin' me excited. I wasn't expecting that at WDW.
Sorry, Brother. It happens sometimes this time of the year. However, it's still voodooland so we'll see how things look over the next couple of days. Looks a little weaker on the late evening models.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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So, seriously... what is up with the temps?? Totally unpacked this week and re-did my suitcase with shorts and tank tops, got rid of jackets and capris... well, except a couple of pairs for the evenings...
I know these temps are WAY above normal for this time of year, this is Aug/Sept. weather.
What's bringing it?? (and what are lows expected to be? Can we anticipate cooler evenings, even though the days will be hot?)
Guess I'm re-thinking adding TL back into the plans...
Blythe
Past trips -
3x offsite,May 06 CBR,Oct 07 I'cot 10,Dec 08 CBR,Jan 09 ASMu,Oct 09 CBR/AKL,Jan 11 AsMu,Aug 11 CBR, Oct 11 AKL,Oct 12 I'cot 15,Aug 13 CBR,Aug '14 mini AKL trip
Next -
May '17 DL OR June '17 CBR
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Originally Posted by Dsnygirl
I know these temps are WAY above normal for this time of year, this is Aug/Sept. weather. What's bringing it?? (and what are lows expected to be? Can we anticipate cooler evenings, even though the days will be hot?)
Actually, the "average" high for this time of the year is 84. So, temps are staying pretty much right on normal. Things warmed up a little bit due to an intense high a couple of weeks ago, but then we had record lows last week. El Nino is what's causing it. It tends to bring more extremes. Anyway, Saturday might be hot depending on when the rain comes, but then Sunday through Thursday or so next week will be right around 85 for highs, which is basically normal. It still depends on when the front moves through next week, but by the end of next week temps should be below normal (upper 70s) so I would imagine October will end up averaging out right around "normal" as some weeks have been hotter and some cooler.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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Jackie Mouse
Return Offender since 1982!
Stayed at: CBR, POR, CSR, CR, Poly, ASMo
Tri-annually in 2010 & 2011... Is that a word?
Last Visit: May 2011
Next Visit: August 2011
On Deck: January 2012 if I can make it that long that is...*o*
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Chris, are you talking mid 80's with lots of humidity or that nice, comfortable 80's? We're going the 1st thru the 8th and we changed our trip once already to avoid HOT!
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Are there any forecasts as to what type of winter WDW's expecting? I know that's Extreme Voodooland- but ya know, warmer or colder than usual?
Jackie Mouse
Return Offender since 1982!
Stayed at: CBR, POR, CSR, CR, Poly, ASMo
Tri-annually in 2010 & 2011... Is that a word?
Last Visit: May 2011
Next Visit: August 2011
On Deck: January 2012 if I can make it that long that is...*o*
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Originally Posted by BiloxiMom
Chris, are you talking mid 80's with lots of humidity or that nice, comfortable 80's? We're going the 1st thru the 8th and we changed our trip once already to avoid HOT!
The humidity shouldn't be too bad. Certainly not summer bad. So, while it will be warm you shouldn't feel like you've just gotten out of the shower after 5 min outside.
Originally Posted by disneykid@hrt
Are there any forecasts as to what type of winter WDW's expecting? I know that's Extreme Voodooland- but ya know, warmer or colder than usual?
The really long-range models right now are indicating that things will be a little wetter than normal with temps at or very slightly above normal.As you said, that's "super-voodooland" but given the El Nino in effect that's probably correct.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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What is a 'model'
Chris,
I don't know much about meteorology: What do you mean by Models?
Our stay at the world is the 7-12th, hoping these 'models' you speak of bring good things.
Thanks.
Many trips as a child '73-'92
Boardwalk Villas Nov'06
Boardwalk Villas Nov '07
Beach Club Villas Nov '08
Old Key West Nov '09
Old Key West Sept'10
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Originally Posted by Minniefan68
Chris,
I don't know much about meteorology: What do you mean by Models?
The "models" are computer simulations (or models) of the atmosphere. They are the primary means of forecasting. There are a ton of them out there run by different groups - NAM, GFS, UKMET, EWRF (Canadian), NOGAPS, and so on. Essentially these are very complex simulations based on really long advanced calculus, thermodynamics, and fluid dynamics and other physics/chemistry formulas (they give me a big headache just looking at them) that run on super computers which attempt to figure out all the variables of the atmosphere and give us a clue as to what will happen. None of them is perfect and each has its strengths and weaknesses (which is why using an automated site, like weather.com - is useless because they only use 1 model). Therefore I look at all of them, take into account those strengths and weaknesses, and try to build a forecast. Now, once we get past 6-7 days the variables in the atmosphere become so enormous that even super computers can't figure them out with a large degree of accuracy, which is why I refer to the time beyond 7 days as "voodooland." Out that far we can usually tell general patterns, but not specifics.
Hope that helps!!
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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