WDW Weather Forecast - May 31-June 16, 2010

[Strmchsr]

Each day in May, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Monday pm, May 31, 2010
Happy Memorial Day, everyone! I hope you'll take a moment to remember those who have paid the ultimate price for us to enjoy our freedoms.

Hot and humid are the words for the week, but tomorrow does start meteorological summer, so you shouldn't expect anything else. Today's high is 91 with some afternoon showers popping up. There's not going to be any change the rest of the week. It's going to be quite humid and hot. Highs will be around 90, give or take a couple of degrees depending on when the afternoon storms fire up, with lows 71-73 and a good chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Thursday and Friday, especially, should have a good coverage of thunderstorms. No all day washout any of these days as these storms generally last an hour or less, but be prepared to duck inside when they do come over as the lightning is often pretty intense.

Long range...June 8-9 is more of the same. Highs around 90 with a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. The GFS model, especially, is returning to the idea of an east coast trough on June 10, which would bring a good round of thunderstorms, but that's still voodooland so wait and see there. June 11-16 things return to normal. Highs will be around 90, lows in the low 70s, and a good chance of a brief thunderstorm in the afternoon.

Travel Impact
At 2:30 pm CDT, Atlanta and Chicago are dealing with some minor delays from thunderstorms. For tomorrow, severe weather could cause problems over IL, WI, MN, SD, NE, IA, and northern MO.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[PetefromRI]

Thanks Chris,we'll be leaving for Orlando in a few hours and returning on the 10th.It looks pretty good!

[DadTriton]

Wednesday's high will be 82-84 and then Thursday through Saturday will have highs 83-85 with lows 62-64. Scattered showers could pop up in the afternoons, but nothing organized or heavy.

You're going with the cooler forecast - I hope so. NWS had 90's on these days. I hope the front is stronger and on the cooler side.

[Strmchsr]

You're going with the cooler forecast - I hope so. NWS had 90's on these days. I hope the front is stronger and on the cooler side.

I hope so, too. The GFS has been running too warm, so I'm looking at the whole spectrum of models and going with the best consensus I can come up with.

[DadTriton]

I hope so, too. The GFS has been running too warm, so I'm looking at the whole spectrum of models and going with the best consensus I can come up with.

Yes, the GFS was really warm last summer and spun up a lot of tropical systems that never happened. I wonder if it will be too aggressive again this year.

[Strmchsr]

Yes, the GFS was really warm last summer and spun up a lot of tropical systems that never happened. I wonder if it will be too aggressive again this year.

The GFS doesn't handle El Nino well, which is what happened last year and what has continued to happen all winter. The El Nino is forecast to begin to break down in June. If that happens i expect the GFS to go back to its normal reliability. Right now, for instance, the NAM is showing 87 for Monday while the GFS is 93. I'm guessing somewhere in between.

[septembergirl]

Thanks for the great info!

[Suz36]

Thanks for taking the time to keep us updated. Have a magical trip!

[Checkers]

Thanks, Chris. We are leaving on Sat. for 8 days and are hoping it won't be oppressively hot. Have a great trip and looking forward to more reports!

[SurferStitch]

It is very hot down here right now. Too hot. Nothing like this week 2 years ago with low 80's and low humidity. That week in 2008 was amazing.

All weather outlets we're looking at are saying highs at or near 90 for the rest of the week except for 86 on Wednesday. Oh, high of 92 today. Their forecasts have been pretty spot on so far, so I'm going with them. Sorry.

Doesn't look like May will have below normal temps at all this month. Not at the rate it's going!

We're having a blast, but won't lie. It would be much more enjoyable if it were 5-8 degrees cooler. I feel gross after a couple hours.

Hope you are having a great time, too!

[Strmchsr]

All weather outlets we're looking at are saying highs at or near 90 for the rest of the week except for 86 on Wednesday. Oh, high of 92 today. Their forecasts have been pretty spot on so far, so I'm going with them. Sorry.

Feel free to follow whichever forecast you like. I do the best I can but no one is 100%.

[forever a child]

I am watching your update for our May 19-26 trip. Thanks Chris!

Have a great time!!!!

[MinnieMommie]

Welcome back Chris. Some of my family is at WDW now and say it is absolutely beautiful. They packed just right based on your forecast.

[Strmchsr]

Welcome back Chris. Some of my family is at WDW now and say it is absolutely beautiful. They packed just right based on your forecast.

Thanks! I hope your family has a wonderful time!

[hubbyofadisneyholic]

I'm definitely liking that forecast for the 21st - 24th.
My wife and I are taking our first trip ANYWHERE alone in 15 yrs.

[Strmchsr]

My wife and I are taking our first trip ANYWHERE alone in 15 yrs.

In that situation I don't think I'd care too much what the forecast was. Just happy to be going. Hope you have a wonderful trip!

[goofyfan4466]

thanks , chris
my family will be driving down from pa. we will be leaving @ 12:01 early saturday morning the 22 nd. it looks like a pretty good forecast. i especially do not like high heat. we are really just hoping for a relaxing trip. thanks again

[Strmchsr]

i especially do not like high heat. we are really just hoping for a relaxing trip. thanks again

Hope you have a safe trip. It'll be hot and humid, but as of now it doesn't look unbearable. Hopefully the long range will stay true for you.

[forever a child]

Thanks Chris! Hoping the showers are not going to be too bad during our week.
Thanks again!

[Jared]

Chris, so my trip Tuesday through Thursday of next weeks looks relatively safe? I hadn't even considered the possibility of inclement weather until I read your most recent update this afternoon! It doesn't seem too scary, does it?