I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:
Weather at WDW - Update Thursday pm, July 30, 2015
The high today should be around 92 with afternoon storms firing up. The heat index will be over 100 so be careful. The next few days should be a little cooler, but also wetter. No all day rainouts, but tomorrow through Sunday there's a 70% chance of thunderstorms with highs 87-89. The storms could last 2-3 hours, but then should move on. There could potentially be multiple waves of storms, however, so just be prepared through the weekend. Monday through Thursday things return more to normal with a 50-50 shot of passing sea breeze storms in the afternoon and a high around 90.
Long range...Aug 7-8 looks like more of the same with pop up storms and a high around 90. Aug 9 looks fairly wet as a weak front pushes near. Aug 10-15 is normal late summer weather. Highs will be around 90 with pop up storms every afternoon.
Travel Issues :drive::plane:
Big delays from thunderstorms today in DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and NYC. For tomorrow, best chance of a delay will be in IL, IN, and OH.
Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence and other issues that sometimes cause anxiety when flying. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!
Tropics :fan:
A weak surface low east of Georgia is moving northeast in the Atlantic, and development is not expected. A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, is disorganized, but some slow development is possible over the next few days as it moves to the west. Dry air will hinder things, however. So, no real chances any thing develops in the next few days, but we're just now moving into peak hurricane season when the wave train off of Africa kicks into high gear. Hopefully things will stay quiet.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
Praying that there's not going to be a heat wave July 22-25. Our summer here in Memphis has been so much cooler than I expected. Any hope for another cool spell in a couple of weeks?
And off topic, was it just me, or was it crazy that so many people were standing around out in the open taking pics of that lightning storm? I tend to be a little overly protective about stuff anyways, but that was making me nervous!
1980-2001 CR;CBR 2001 AKL 2002 AKL 2003 AKL 2004 AKL; CB; AKL 2007 WL 2008 AKL 9/09 AKL Jambo 12/10 AKL Kidani 9/11 AKL Kidani 9/12 AKL 12/12 AKL 5/13 AKL 12/13 SS 9/14 BLT 12/14 SS 2/15 Aulani DVC 7/15 CBR 10/15 Yacht Club 12/16 DS 7/17 Aulani 01/19 POR 08/19 Yacht Club
Yes, folks standing out with that intense lightning was just plain stupid. Reminds me of the idiots who try to film tornadoes (normal folks, not the professional storm chasers) instead of going for cover. When I was storm chasing Bubba and his friends trying to film things made it even more dangerous for those of us who knew what we were doing and trying to do our job. Lightning kills way more people than tornadoes and hurricanes combined each year and Florida lightning can be super intense. People seem to lose their brains when it comes to weather events. If there's lightning, go inside. Simple as that.
Memphis has been right on the outer edge of the heat ridge this summer, which has allowed it to be a little cooler and wetter than normal while MS, AL, GA, and FL have been fairly hot. Though not excessively so. This week will trend hotter and drier, especially this weekend but there's enough soil moisture to keep the heat from getting out of control. Monday through Wednesday next week a trough returns, so a little cooler and wetter, but then the ridge builds back. I don't see any excessive heat out in voodooland for Memphis or Orlando during your trip. Obviously it's too far out to say for sure but the overall pattern right now looks more in the range of "normal" summer heat for Orlando. It'll still be very hot and humid, and may feel especially so if you haven't had it in Memphis and therefore not adjusted to the summer heat. Just take normal precautions - drink lots of water, high spf sunscreen, hats, take breaks, etc. and you'll have a great trip.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
Thanks Chris! We're definitely planning on avoiding the mid-day heat/sun, and will definitely stay hydrated.
1980-2001 CR;CBR 2001 AKL 2002 AKL 2003 AKL 2004 AKL; CB; AKL 2007 WL 2008 AKL 9/09 AKL Jambo 12/10 AKL Kidani 9/11 AKL Kidani 9/12 AKL 12/12 AKL 5/13 AKL 12/13 SS 9/14 BLT 12/14 SS 2/15 Aulani DVC 7/15 CBR 10/15 Yacht Club 12/16 DS 7/17 Aulani 01/19 POR 08/19 Yacht Club
So trying to plan out our days a little more. (July 22-25). This may sound silly, but do the thunderstorms move through about the same time in the afternoon? So basically mornings are pretty clear, thunderstorms mid-afternoon, then clear at night? My kids still nap, so I'm planning on trying to be in the room probably from 2:00-5:00 pm each day. We only have 1 park day On Friday the 24th, and I'm definitely planning on a mid-day break, then back to MK for dinner around 6:30.
Thanks!
1980-2001 CR;CBR 2001 AKL 2002 AKL 2003 AKL 2004 AKL; CB; AKL 2007 WL 2008 AKL 9/09 AKL Jambo 12/10 AKL Kidani 9/11 AKL Kidani 9/12 AKL 12/12 AKL 5/13 AKL 12/13 SS 9/14 BLT 12/14 SS 2/15 Aulani DVC 7/15 CBR 10/15 Yacht Club 12/16 DS 7/17 Aulani 01/19 POR 08/19 Yacht Club
Yeah, in general, the storms are mid to late afternoon (2-5 pm). Obviously they can and do form both earlier and later but the general rule is afternoon and they are fairly consistent as the sea breeze front works across Florida.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
Thank you!!!
1980-2001 CR;CBR 2001 AKL 2002 AKL 2003 AKL 2004 AKL; CB; AKL 2007 WL 2008 AKL 9/09 AKL Jambo 12/10 AKL Kidani 9/11 AKL Kidani 9/12 AKL 12/12 AKL 5/13 AKL 12/13 SS 9/14 BLT 12/14 SS 2/15 Aulani DVC 7/15 CBR 10/15 Yacht Club 12/16 DS 7/17 Aulani 01/19 POR 08/19 Yacht Club
Last question, then I'l leave you alone until October:) Flying Memphis to Orlando at 1:50pm tomorrow. What's it looking like? I hope we aren't delayed too much. Thank you!
1980-2001 CR;CBR 2001 AKL 2002 AKL 2003 AKL 2004 AKL; CB; AKL 2007 WL 2008 AKL 9/09 AKL Jambo 12/10 AKL Kidani 9/11 AKL Kidani 9/12 AKL 12/12 AKL 5/13 AKL 12/13 SS 9/14 BLT 12/14 SS 2/15 Aulani DVC 7/15 CBR 10/15 Yacht Club 12/16 DS 7/17 Aulani 01/19 POR 08/19 Yacht Club
You shouldn't have any issues. Thunderstorms will pop up but they should be scattered enough for the planes to fly around them. I wouldn't expect major delays. And even minor delays aren't too terribly likely. Have a wonderful trip!!
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
Yay! Thank you! Seems like I picked a decent week to go. I appreciate it!
1980-2001 CR;CBR 2001 AKL 2002 AKL 2003 AKL 2004 AKL; CB; AKL 2007 WL 2008 AKL 9/09 AKL Jambo 12/10 AKL Kidani 9/11 AKL Kidani 9/12 AKL 12/12 AKL 5/13 AKL 12/13 SS 9/14 BLT 12/14 SS 2/15 Aulani DVC 7/15 CBR 10/15 Yacht Club 12/16 DS 7/17 Aulani 01/19 POR 08/19 Yacht Club
Happy Birthday Caleb:mickey:
How long does this everyday rain pattern normally last? I know this is a summer thing but when does it usually start to change? August? September? or is it more October?
Thanks!
momof3+twins;2465309 wrote: How long does this everyday rain pattern normally last? I know this is a summer thing but when does it usually start to change? August? September? or is it more October?
Thanks!
In general mid September to October is when that pattern begins to shift. It can last well into October. Basically it'll last as long as the hot, humid conditions which cause the sea breeze continue. Once you get a decent front or two through with some drier air that pattern stops. But when that first good front of the season will arrive is impossible to say.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
