I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:
Weather at WDW - Update Tuesday pm, September 30, 2014
The high will be around 87 today. Thunderstorms will roll through off and on this afternoon. A flood watch is up so some of the rain could be heavy. Tomorrow through Friday highs will continue to be in the 85-87 range. Tomorrow and Thursday look for a 60% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday should be drier as a front approaches, and it actually could be a bit warmer if the sun pops out. I wouldn't be shocked to see the high bump 90. Saturday periods of showers are likely as a front moves through. The high will be around 85. The day doesn't look like a total washout and I don't see any severe weather at the moment, but definitely have a poncho handy. Sunday through Tuesday looks dry and less humid with highs around 80 for Sunday and Monday then 83-85 for Tuesday.
Long range...Oct 8-10 stays dry with low to mid 80s for highs. Oct 11 a front moves over Florida bringing showers. Oct 12-16 looks dry with highs in the mid 70s and lows down into the low 50s. That's just voodoo right now, but it is getting to be that time of the year. And just to remind us that the tropical season isn't done yet, the afternoon GFS has a hurricane moving in on Miami on Oct 16. As always, that's nothing but a phantom storm. Nothing to be concerned about, but it does serve as a good reminder to stay vigilant.
Travel Issues:drive:
Minor delays today in Charlotte, NYC, and San Francisco. Delays are possible tomorrow over NE, KS, and MO.
Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence and other issues that sometimes cause anxiety when flying. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!
Tropics :fan:
Nothing happening and nothing is expected to happen for the next few days.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
Uh-oh...we leave on the 19th for a really short trip. Hope the hurricane blows on through!
1980-2001 CR;CBR 2001 AKL 2002 AKL 2003 AKL 2004 AKL; CB; AKL 2007 WL 2008 AKL 9/09 AKL Jambo 12/10 AKL Kidani 9/11 AKL Kidani 9/12 AKL 12/12 AKL 5/13 AKL 12/13 SS 9/14 BLT 12/14 SS 2/15 Aulani DVC 7/15 CBR 10/15 Yacht Club 12/16 DS 7/17 Aulani 01/19 POR 08/19 Yacht Club
lawgirl;2432097 wrote: Uh-oh...we leave on the 19th for a really short trip. Hope the hurricane blows on through!
No need for concern. The models are constantly developing tropical systems out in voodooland and it changes from run to run. The hurricane that was targeting Florida yesterday is showing as heading towards Mississippi this morning. It'll probably show something else entirely different this afternoon. Until a storm actually forms these "phantom storms" are not worth being anxious over.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
Thanks! I'll be anxiously checking your updates, especially next week! Praying for some great weather!
1980-2001 CR;CBR 2001 AKL 2002 AKL 2003 AKL 2004 AKL; CB; AKL 2007 WL 2008 AKL 9/09 AKL Jambo 12/10 AKL Kidani 9/11 AKL Kidani 9/12 AKL 12/12 AKL 5/13 AKL 12/13 SS 9/14 BLT 12/14 SS 2/15 Aulani DVC 7/15 CBR 10/15 Yacht Club 12/16 DS 7/17 Aulani 01/19 POR 08/19 Yacht Club
Strmchsr;2432114 wrote: No need for concern. The models are constantly developing tropical systems out in voodooland and it changes from run to run. The hurricane that was targeting Florida yesterday is showing as heading towards Mississippi this morning. It'll probably show something else entirely different this afternoon. Until a storm actually forms these "phantom storms" are not worth being anxious over.
Yea, us Floridians are used to the hurricanes that are projected to hit Florida but turn and go somewhere else. It's a pretty common thing lol. :thumbsup:
""Tuesday afternoon and evening a little wave moves over Florida which could make things pretty wet (I hope not since I'm supposed to go the the MNSSHP Tuesday night, but that's what it looks like right now). Wednesday looks about a 50% chance of scattered thunderstorms.""
We'll be there Tuesday night as well. Hoping for the best. Going to dig out the ponchos as we type!
Disney World
Off site - 1980-1983
CR - 87, BC - 95, YC - 99, BW - 05, GF - 06, BW - 07
BC - 09 with kids and grandkids
BC - 10, BC - '11,
June 2012, family retirement vacation Poly
Dec. 2013 GF/BC CL
Sept. 2014. GF. CL. 40th Anniversary.
It ain't a vacation if you don't go fishin!
spoiledraf;2433307 wrote: We'll be there Tuesday night as well. Hoping for the best. Going to dig out the ponchos as we type!
Definitely a good idea. This morning's models looked a little more optimistic that the wave might get through earlier in the day and the evening will be fine. So, we'll see what the afternoon models say and I'll update the forecast then. Maybe I'll see you Tuesday!:mickey:
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
Hope so. Couple seniors, our daughter and her two little ones. DD is making orange or black T's with Mickeys and a couple bats flying around them. First real visit for our grand daughter. Sure she doesn't remember the one when she was 7 months old!
Disney World
Off site - 1980-1983
CR - 87, BC - 95, YC - 99, BW - 05, GF - 06, BW - 07
BC - 09 with kids and grandkids
BC - 10, BC - '11,
June 2012, family retirement vacation Poly
Dec. 2013 GF/BC CL
Sept. 2014. GF. CL. 40th Anniversary.
It ain't a vacation if you don't go fishin!
So I'm thinking we'll need to also pull out our ponchos for Friday the 19th? Looks like we may be stuck in the hotel on Saturday the 20th if its torrential downpours. Oh well! Do you foresee any weather causing travel delays coming from Memphis, TN on the 19th? Is that still in voodoo land?
1980-2001 CR;CBR 2001 AKL 2002 AKL 2003 AKL 2004 AKL; CB; AKL 2007 WL 2008 AKL 9/09 AKL Jambo 12/10 AKL Kidani 9/11 AKL Kidani 9/12 AKL 12/12 AKL 5/13 AKL 12/13 SS 9/14 BLT 12/14 SS 2/15 Aulani DVC 7/15 CBR 10/15 Yacht Club 12/16 DS 7/17 Aulani 01/19 POR 08/19 Yacht Club
Sorry...I should probably wait a few more days...getting weather anxiety. That's the problem with short trips!
1980-2001 CR;CBR 2001 AKL 2002 AKL 2003 AKL 2004 AKL; CB; AKL 2007 WL 2008 AKL 9/09 AKL Jambo 12/10 AKL Kidani 9/11 AKL Kidani 9/12 AKL 12/12 AKL 5/13 AKL 12/13 SS 9/14 BLT 12/14 SS 2/15 Aulani DVC 7/15 CBR 10/15 Yacht Club 12/16 DS 7/17 Aulani 01/19 POR 08/19 Yacht Club
lawgirl;2433423 wrote: Sorry...I should probably wait a few more days...getting weather anxiety. That's the problem with short trips!
lol no problem. I certainly understand! I've been having a bit of anxiety look at next week, too but it'll all be okay. :mickey:
I don't see any issues flying down on the 19th. The models are continuing to pop up a hurricane in the Gulf but now they have it going inland in the FL panhandle on 9/22. It's all still total voodoo, but that wouldn't impact any flights from Memphis on the 19th. The issue according to the models this morning would be on 9/22-23 as this strong hurricane comes inland (pretty much right over my house - I'm glad it's still voodooland!). So, it's just something to keep an eye on but nothing to worry about. As for the rain - 9/19-21 looks like some showers will be about, but no day will be a total washout. I'll post around 12 or 12:30 today with the afternoon model update.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
Thanks Chris...trying to remain calm! Your weather posts are always the best. I'll be checking back! We're headed back in December for about a week, so I'm not too worried. But still. I need some fun! Thanks again!
1980-2001 CR;CBR 2001 AKL 2002 AKL 2003 AKL 2004 AKL; CB; AKL 2007 WL 2008 AKL 9/09 AKL Jambo 12/10 AKL Kidani 9/11 AKL Kidani 9/12 AKL 12/12 AKL 5/13 AKL 12/13 SS 9/14 BLT 12/14 SS 2/15 Aulani DVC 7/15 CBR 10/15 Yacht Club 12/16 DS 7/17 Aulani 01/19 POR 08/19 Yacht Club
Woohoo! We leave tomorrow and will be at the Party on Sunday!!!!!:cloud9:
Pirate Granny
October 2020 — 3 nights OKW, 3 nights Poly Lakeview and 1 night BWV studios
November 2020 — BRV studio 9 nights
December 2020 entire family GV OKW
December 2020 January 2021 BCV studio
OH YEAH BABY !!! Proud owners at OKW + BCV + BRV + RR
We are coming over from the UK on 25th Sept. When you say a cold front is moving over. What sort of temps are you talking about?
We are used to rain here in the UK, I just need to think about what to pack and if its going to be colder will we need warmer clothes
thanks for you help
Debbie:bat::mpumpkin::ghost::witch:
Cold front for Orlando would be highs near 80. Too soon for any real cool weather. Even that won't last long.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
